2015年-ECB欧洲央行_Review_of_draft_budgetary_plans_for_2016_4页_207kb

Box 7 Summary: Review of 2016 Draft Budgetary Plans

Core Content

The European Commission reviewed the draft budgetary plans of euro area countries not under a financial assistance programme in November 2015. This assessment was conducted in accordance with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and followed up on the 2015 European Semester country-specific recommendations. The review highlighted varying levels of compliance with SGP rules, as well as concerns regarding the transparency and complexity of the fiscal surveillance framework.

Main Findings

• Compliance Status:

  • Fully compliant: 5 countries (Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Slovakia).
  • Broadly compliant: 7 countries (Belgium, Ireland, Latvia, Malta, Slovenia, Finland, France).
  • Risk of non-compliance: 4 countries (Italy, Austria, Lithuania, Spain), with Portugal also at risk due to late submission.

• Key Observations:

  • The Netherlands is expected to deviate significantly from its MTO in 2015-16.
  • Slovakia shows little progress in reducing its structural deficit.
  • Structural effort in many countries is below SGP commitments, with some even planning to loosen fiscal stances.
  • The "Six-Pack" expenditure benchmark and the "overall assessment" mechanism introduce complexity and reduce transparency in the fiscal surveillance process.
  • The "freezing" of adjustment requirements based on outdated forecasts may distort the assessment of compliance.

• Structural Reforms and Investment Clause:

  • Introduced in January 2015, this clause allows for reductions in structural effort requirements, even for countries not at their MTO or with high debt ratios.
  • Italy received a reduction in structural effort in 2016, and is seeking further leeway.
  • This clause creates inconsistencies between structural effort requirements under the preventive arm and the debt rule.

• Fiscal Stance Trends:

  • Under the preventive arm, countries not at their MTO are forecast to loosen fiscal stances by 0.2% of GDP, below the required tightening of 0.3%.
  • Under the corrective arm, countries subject to EDP are forecast to consolidate by 0.2% of GDP, while the required effort is 0.9%.
  • Countries at their MTO are expected to loosen fiscal stances slightly, on average by 0.2 percentage points of GDP.

• Aggregate Fiscal Stance:

  • The euro area's aggregate fiscal stance is expected to turn slightly expansionary in 2016.
  • The cyclically adjusted primary balance is forecast to decline by 0.3% of GDP, reflecting the impact of the business cycle and low interest rates.

Key Concerns

• Transparency and Predictability:

  • The fiscal surveillance framework is becoming increasingly complex and opaque.
  • The Eurogroup called for greater transparency in the review process and urged the Commission to improve predictability.

• Growth-Friendly Expenditure:

  • The Commission noted that government expenditure remains insufficiently supportive of growth.
  • While tax cuts on labor are seen as positive, capital expenditure is still expected to decline as a share of GDP.

Recommendations and Follow-Up

• The Eurogroup called on countries at risk of non-compliance to take timely measures to address fiscal imbalances and converge towards their MTOs.
• Countries under the corrective arm (EDP) should ensure timely correction of excessive deficits and subsequent convergence.
• The Eurogroup welcomed commitments from Italy, Austria, Lithuania, and Spain to address the gaps identified by the Commission.
• A follow-up assessment is scheduled for April 2016, with the Eurogroup emphasizing the need for the Commission to enhance transparency and predictability in the review process to make it an effective early warning mechanism.

Conclusion

The review of 2016 draft budgetary plans reveals ongoing challenges in fiscal compliance across the euro area. While some countries meet SGP requirements, many face risks due to insufficient structural efforts and inconsistencies in the application of fiscal rules. The Commission and Eurogroup stress the importance of transparency, predictability, and growth-supportive fiscal policies to ensure long-term stability and convergence within the euro area.