20160830-DBS_Group-China_Property_Weekly_Digest_20页_722kb

报告摘要

Sales Rebound Ahead of Peak Season Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the property market performance in China, focusing on sales volume, average selling price (ASP), inventory levels, and share price performance across Tier I, Tier II, and Tier III cities. It also includes valuation comparisons of key real estate companies.

Key Information and Trends

Sales Volume

In week 35th (Aug 22–Aug 28), the sales volume in Tier I/II/III cities increased by 27% /19% /16% week-over-week (w-o-w).
Nanjing, Shanghai, and Wuhan were the main drivers of the volume growth.
Year-to-date (YTD) gross floor area (GFA) sold increased by 28.9% y-o-y.

Average Selling Price (ASP)

The overall ASP recovered by 2.2% w-o-w.
Tier I cities showed an overall 6% w-o-w increase in ASP, with Shanghai leading at 29% w-o-w.
Tier II cities had an overall 1% w-o-w increase in ASP, with Hangzhou at 24% w-o-w.
Tier III cities showed an overall 0% w-o-w change in ASP, with Dongguan at 5% w-o-w.

Inventory Levels

The inventory level of key cities declined w-o-w to 44 weeks.
The sell-through rate of new launches in major Tier I&II cities slightly decreased w-o-w to 77%.
Rolling 26 weeks inventory is used as a reference for inventory trends.

Weekly Sales Performance by Tier

Tier I Cities

Total GFA sold: 1,201,000 sqm, up 27% w-o-w.
ASP: 34,132 RMB/sqm, up 6% w-o-w.
Performance by city:
- Beijing: GFA sold 163,000 sqm, up 5% w-o-w; ASP 37,710 RMB/sqm, up 9% w-o-w.
- Shanghai: GFA sold 720,000 sqm, up 45% w-o-w; ASP 34,622 RMB/sqm, up 29% w-o-w.
- Shenzhen: GFA sold 29,000 sqm, down 39% w-o-w; ASP 45,313 RMB/sqm, down 16% w-o-w.
- Guangzhou: GFA sold 289,000 sqm, up 18% w-o-w; ASP 18,882 RMB/sqm, up 4% w-o-w.

Tier II Cities

Total GFA sold: 5,789,000 sqm, up 19% w-o-w.
ASP: 11,575 RMB/sqm, up 1% w-o-w.
Performance by city:
- Tianjin: GFA sold 423,000 sqm, up 1% w-o-w; ASP 12,932 RMB/sqm, up 1% w-o-w.
- Hangzhou: GFA sold 188,000 sqm, up 24% w-o-w; ASP 13,000 RMB/sqm, up 16% w-o-w.
- Wuhan: GFA sold 780,000 sqm, up 39% w-o-w; ASP 9,200 RMB/sqm, up 9% w-o-w.
- Nanjing: GFA sold 341,000 sqm, up 69% w-o-w; ASP 12,200 RMB/sqm, up 23% w-o-w.

Tier III Cities

Total GFA sold: 1,445,000 sqm, up 16% w-o-w.
ASP: 7,209 RMB/sqm, up 0% w-o-w.
Performance by city:
- Dongguan: GFA sold 137,000 sqm, up 40% w-o-w; ASP 15,623 RMB/sqm, up 5% w-o-w.
- Xuzhou: GFA sold 278,000 sqm, up 5% w-o-w; ASP 6,660 RMB/sqm, up 0% w-o-w.
- Nanchong: GFA sold 66,000 sqm, up 78% w-o-w; ASP 5,172 RMB/sqm, down 4% w-o-w.
- Dandong: GFA sold 93,000 sqm, up 5% w-o-w; ASP 6,660 RMB/sqm, down 3% w-o-w.

Share Price Performance and Peer Valuations

The HSI on 30 August 2016 was 23,016.
YTD share price performance and peer valuations are provided, including:
- China Overseas: Price HK$26.05, Market Cap US$33.1bn, 3-mth daily trading value US$58.1m, Recommendation BUY, 12-m target HK$31.60.
- Country Garden: Price HK$3.89, Market Cap US$11.1bn, 3-mth daily trading value US$8.3m, Recommendation BUY, 12-m target HK$4.22.
- CR Land: Price HK$22.35, Market Cap US$20.0bn, 3-mth daily trading value US$31.9m, Recommendation BUY, 12-m target HK$29.65.
- China Vanke 'H': Price HK$19.92, Market Cap US$36.4bn, 3-mth daily trading value US$49.0m, Recommendation HOLD, 12-m target HK$19.19.
- Dalian Wanda 'H': Price HK$52.8, Market Cap US$30.8bn, 3-mth daily trading value US$20.7m, Recommendation NR.
- Evergrande: Price HK$5.76, Market Cap US$10.2bn, 3-mth daily trading value US$15.7m, Recommendation HOLD, 12-m target HK$6.45.
- Shimao Property: Price HK$11, Market Cap US$4.9bn, 3-mth daily trading value US$8.0m, Recommendation HOLD, 12-m target HK$9.85.
- Sunac China: Price HK$5.45, Market Cap US$2.4bn, 3-mth daily trading value US$10.0m, Recommendation NR.
- Yankord Land: Price HK$1.275, Market Cap US$1.8bn, 3-mth daily trading value US$1.4m, Recommendation BUY, 12-m target HK$1.46.
- Average for large cap: 10, 28, 9.0, 9.7, 3.4, 4.0, 8.7, 9.7, 65.7, 0.6, 55.8.

Summary of Key Trends

The property market experienced a short-term rebound in Shanghai due to rumors about increased down payment ratios.
Sales volume increased significantly across Tier I/II/III cities.
ASP showed recovery in Tier I and II cities.
Inventory levels declined, indicating improved market conditions.
Sell-through rates slightly decreased, suggesting slower absorption of new launches.
Share price performance and valuation metrics varied among companies, with some showing positive trends and others neutral or hold.

Conclusion

The property market in China showed signs of rebound ahead of the peak season, with notable increases in sales volume and ASP in Tier I and II cities. The inventory levels were declining, and market sentiment was positive. However, sell-through rates were slightly down, and valuation metrics varied significantly across companies. The market dynamics and trends suggest a mixed outlook for the sector.