牛津-全球服务贸易革命（英文）-2020.8-53页_20mb

Summary of the Global Services Trade Revolution

Core Content

The Global Services Trade Revolution report highlights the growing significance of services trade in the global economy, particularly in the context of post-pandemic recovery and digital transformation. It emphasizes the shift from traditional goods-based trade to a more digital and service-oriented trade model, driven by technological advancements and changing consumer behaviors.

Main Viewpoints

• Services are now a major component of global trade: Services account for over 55% of all global trade flows, totaling US$13.7 trillion in 2019. This represents a 24% share of total trade in 2019, up from 19% in 1995.

• Services growth outpaces goods trade: Between 2010 and 2019, the value of global services trade increased by 50%, double the growth rate of goods trade. This trend is expected to continue, with services trade forecasted to grow by 31% to US$8.0 trillion by 2025.

• Digital services are the key drivers: The digitalisation of work practices, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, has made services trade more resilient. Digital services such as B2B, ICT, and Financial Services are expected to contribute 62% of the $1.9 trillion increase in services trade between 2019 and 2025.

• The rise of the services economy: Services now account for over two-thirds (68%) of global GDP and nearly half (49%) of all employment. In developed economies, services make up 75% of total employment.

• New technologies enable global services trade: Broadband, 5G, IoT, and virtual reality are reshaping the potential for services to be traded across borders. These technologies are expected to support $900 billion in 5G investments and 25 billion IoT connections by 2025.

• Trade liberalisation could boost growth: A multilateral liberalisation of trade policies on services could lead to an 11% increase in the value of global services trade by 2025, adding $890 billion to cross-border transactions.

Key Information

• Services trade is more resilient: During the pandemic, the value of cross-border flows of B2B, ICT, and Financial Services declined by only 6%, while total services trade slumped 18% and goods trade fell 13%.

• Tourism and transport are most affected: Traditional services like tourism and transport are expected to experience significant declines, with tourism spending falling by 40% and air passenger transport dropping by over 50% in 2020.

• Developing economies are catching up: While advanced economies dominate modern digital services, developing economies like India and China are making notable gains. India's share of global services exports rose from 2% in 2005 to 4% in 2019, and China's share increased from 3% to 5%.

• Future growth is expected to be led by digital services: The report forecasts that digital services will be central to the next phase of global trade growth, with a focus on B2B, ICT, and Financial Services.

• Global trade in services is expected to grow by 31% by 2025: This includes an $1.9 trillion increase, with 62% of the growth coming from B2B, ICT, and Financial Services.

Conclusion

The report concludes that services trade is set to play a pivotal role in the global economic recovery, especially as digital technologies continue to transform how businesses operate. The shift towards digital and remote working, combined with trade liberalisation, is expected to unlock new opportunities for services trade, reshaping the global economy for the next decade.