20251114-招银国际-腾讯控股-00700.HK-3Q25_results_solid_growth_across_business_lines_upbeat_on_long-term_AI_opportunities_8页_1mb

Tencent (700 HK) - Equity Research - Company Update (Sept 30, 2025 Predicted)

Key Highlights:

1. Strong Q3 Performance:

   • Revenue: 15% YoY growth to HK$192.9B, beat Bloomberg consensus/estimate by 24bps.
   • Non-IFRS Operating Income: 18% YoY growth to HK$72.6B, aligns with market expectations.

2. Game Revenue Strong:

   • Games revenue increased 23% YoY to HK$63.6B, led by steady domestic growth (15% YoY) from evergreen titles and Delta Force, and 43% YoY international expansion due to Supercell, new acquisitions, and Dying Light.

3. Marketing Services and FBS:

   • Marketing revenue: 21% YoY growth to HK$36.2B, driven by increased ad impressions and eCPM, aided by AI-driven ad targeting.
   • FBS revenue: 10% YoY growth to HK$58.2B, supported by fintech payment volumes and AI cloud/e-commerce services.

4. AI Focus:

   • Maintain constructive view on Tencent’s long-term AI opportunities across ads, games, e-commerce, and agentic AI.
   • Roll forward valuation window to FY26E and lift target price to HK$760 (from HK$705).

5. FY25 Capex Revision:

   • Lower FY25 capex guidance due to supply chain constraints, but remain committed to AI investments.

Target Price and Valuation

• Target Price: HK$760 per share (Up from HK$705)
• SOTP Analysis: Per share valuation includes HK$335.3 for Games (24x 2026E PE), HK$150.4 for Marketing, HK$103.4 for Fintech, etc.
• Rating: BUY

Risks:

• Slower-than-anticipated GPM expansion.
• Decline in legacy games revenue.
• Macroeconomic pressures affecting advertising and FBS growth.