2016年-世界发展银行全球_Mexico_Public_Expenditure_Review_441页_4mb

Mexico Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This report, prepared at the request of Mexico's Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), presents a comprehensive analysis of public expenditure management, fiscal dynamics, and sector-specific spending in Mexico. It aims to support Mexico's ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts by evaluating the efficiency, equity, and impact of public spending in key sectors and addressing broader fiscal policy challenges.

Main Views

• Public Expenditure Trends: Public expenditures have increased substantially over the past decade, driven by rising social spending, public security, and capital investment. However, this growth has been accompanied by increasing fiscal deficits and public debt, highlighting the need for fiscal consolidation.

• Fiscal Sustainability: The Mexican government's fiscal position is under pressure due to low oil prices, aging population, and demographic trends. These factors are leading to long-term structural shifts in public spending, necessitating reforms to ensure sustainability and efficiency.

• Fiscal Decentralization: Fiscal decentralization in Mexico has not been balanced. Subnational governments bear significant spending responsibilities but have limited revenue-generating capacity, leading to high dependence on federal transfers and potential fiscal vulnerabilities.

• Expenditure Efficiency and Equity: The report emphasizes the need to improve the efficiency and equity of public spending. It identifies key areas where reforms are necessary, such as streamlining intergovernmental transfers, enhancing tax collection, and aligning expenditure policies with broader development goals.

• Sector-Specific Challenges: Each sector analyzed faces unique challenges in terms of efficiency, equity, and fiscal sustainability. The report provides detailed insights into health, education, social assistance, public security, and other critical areas.

Key Information

Fiscal Overview

• Public Revenue Growth: Between 2004 and 2014, general government revenues grew at an average of 3.8% per year in real terms, while GDP growth was slower at 2.4%.
• Public Expenditure: Public spending increased at an average rate of 5% per year, reaching 26% of GDP in 2014.
• Primary Deficit and Debt: The primary deficit has widened, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio has increased to 50% in 2014.
• PSBR (Public Sector Borrowing Requirements): PSBR is projected to decrease from 4.6% of GDP in 2014 to 3.5% in 2016, but fiscal adjustment will still be necessary to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio back to a sustainable level.

Taxation and Revenue

• Tax Contributions: Taxes contributed the most to public revenue growth, with income tax leading the overall trend.
• Tax Burden: Mexico's overall tax burden remains relatively low, with room for further reforms or improvements in tax administration.
• Subnational Tax Revenues: Subnational tax revenues are modest, representing less than 1% of GDP, far below OECD and Latin American averages.

Fiscal Decentralization

• Vertical Fiscal Gap: Mexico has the largest vertical fiscal gap among OECD countries, with subnational governments responsible for 50% of total spending but collecting only 10% of total tax revenue.
• Intergovernmental Transfers: Transfers make up a large portion of subnational budgets, but their complexity and fragmentation discourage local revenue mobilization and reduce expenditure efficiency.
• Debt Trends: Subnational debt has increased significantly since 2008, reaching 3.1% of GDP in 2013. Some states are already in need of debt restructuring.

Sector Analysis

• Health: Public health spending has increased, with a focus on universal health insurance. However, efficiency and equity remain concerns, especially with rising healthcare costs due to an aging population.
• Education: Education spending has expanded, but efficiency and equity in service delivery are still areas for improvement. The report highlights the need for better resource allocation and performance monitoring.
• Social Assistance and Labor Programs: Social protection spending has grown, driven by demographic changes and policy goals. The report suggests reforms to improve coverage and efficiency.
• Public Security: Spending on public security is rising, and the expansion of police forces will entail significant long-term commitments.
• Subsidies for Productive Inclusion: Subsidies for agriculture, housing, and small businesses are part of broader efforts to support economic inclusion, but their effectiveness and fiscal sustainability are under scrutiny.
• Water and Sanitation: Public spending on water and sanitation has increased, but efficiency and access remain key challenges.
• Energy Sector: The oil sector's fiscal importance is declining due to low prices and higher production costs. Reforms are expected to liberalize fuel prices and improve fiscal sustainability.

Conclusions and Recommendations

• Budgetary Inertia: Legal and discretionary expenditures account for most of the budget, creating rigidity that hinders fiscal adjustment. Reforms are needed to increase budget flexibility.
• Tax Reform: Expanding the VAT base, reducing tax incentives, and improving tax collection by subnational governments could help meet rising expenditure pressures.
• Fiscal Decentralization: Streamlining intergovernmental transfers and reorienting their distribution to focus on demand-side factors could improve efficiency and equity.
• Sector Reforms: Each sector requires targeted reforms to improve efficiency and ensure fiscal sustainability, including better performance evaluation systems and alignment with national policy objectives.

Structure of the Report

Chapters

• Chapter 1: Overview

  • Introduces the purpose and scope of the report.
  • Highlights the challenges and opportunities in public expenditure management.
  • Outlines the main findings and recommendations.

• Chapter 2: The Macro-Fiscal Profile

  • Examines fiscal dynamics, revenue trends, and expenditure pressures.
  • Discusses the implications of these trends for fiscal consolidation.

• Chapter 3: Fiscal Decentralization and Subnational Public Finances

  • Analyzes the fiscal structure and responsibilities at the subnational level.
  • Identifies challenges and opportunities for improving fiscal sustainability.

• Chapter 4: The Performance Evaluation System

  • Reviews the current performance monitoring and evaluation system.
  • Proposes improvements to enhance accountability and efficiency.

• Chapter 5: Human Resource Management

  • Focuses on the efficiency and effectiveness of public sector workforce management.
  • Suggests reforms to improve incentives and performance.

• Chapter 6: Health

  • Analyzes health expenditures, efficiency, and equity.
  • Highlights the impact of demographic trends on long-term fiscal pressures.

• Chapter 7: Education

  • Examines education spending and its implications for equity and efficiency.
  • Recommends reforms to improve resource allocation and performance.

• Chapter 8: Social Assistance and Labor Programs

  • Reviews trends in social protection spending.
  • Discusses the need for improved coverage and efficiency.

• Chapter 9: Subsidies for Productive Inclusion

  • Focuses on subsidies for agriculture, housing, and small businesses.
  • Suggests reforms to enhance their effectiveness and fiscal sustainability.

• Chapter 10: Water and Sanitation

  • Analyzes spending trends and efficiency in the water and sanitation sector.
  • Recommends improvements in service delivery and resource allocation.

• Chapter 11: Public Security

  • Reviews the fiscal implications of increased public security spending.
  • Suggests reforms to improve efficiency and manage long-term costs.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1.1: Public Revenues and Expenditures, 2000-2014 (percent of GDP).

• Figure 1.2: The Fiscal Decentralization Diamond, 1990-2010.

• Figure 1.3: Subnational Tax Revenues in Selected Federations and OECD Countries, 2012 (percent of GDP).

• Figure 1.4: Vertical Fiscal Gaps among OECD Countries, 2011 (% of total spending).

• Figure 1.5: Actors in Mexico's National Evaluation Framework.

• Figure 1.6: Budgeted vs. Actual Base Payments for Temporary Workers, 2009-2014.

• Figure 1.7: Trends in Total Public and Private Health Spending, 2000-2013 (percent of GDP).

• Figure 1.8: Public Expenditure on Administration and Insurance as Percentage of Total Current Health Expenditure, 2011.

• Figure 1.9: Health Insurance Beneficiaries by Data Source, 2010 (millions of people).

• Figure 1.10: Distribution of Current and Capital Expenditure on Educational Institutions: Primary, Secondary, and Post-Secondary Non-Tertiary, 2011.

• Figure 1.11: Net Enrollment Rate in Higher Education by Income Decile, 2000 and 2012.

• Figure 1.12: Expenditures on Social Assistance Programs as a Percentage of GDP, 2003-2013.

• Figure 1.13: Distribution of Beneficiaries by Quintile.

• Figure 1.14: CONAVI Subsidies and Housing Deficits by State.

• Figure 1.15: FONHAPO Subsidies and Extreme Poverty Rates by State.

• Figure 1.16: Access to Improved Water and Sanitation in Mexico and Selected Comparators, 2012 (percent of population).

• Figure 1.17: Spending on Public Safety and Defense in OECD Countries (percent of Central Government Spending).

• Table 1.1: Public Sector Revenue and Expenditures, 2014-2016 (% of GDP).

• Table 1.2: Base Salary as a Percentage of Total Permanent Payments.

• Table 1.3: Policy Actions: Efficiency, Equity and Fiscal Savings.

Summary of Key Findings

• Mexico's public sector has experienced significant growth in both revenues and expenditures over the past decade.
• Fiscal consolidation is essential due to the widening primary deficit and rising public debt.
• Fiscal decentralization is uneven, with subnational governments having limited revenue capacity relative to their spending responsibilities.
• Intergovernmental transfers are complex and fragmented, reducing local revenue mobilization and expenditure efficiency.
• Subnational debt has increased, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.
• Each sector analyzed faces unique efficiency and equity challenges, with recommendations for targeted reforms.
• Improving tax collection and broadening the tax base are critical for long-term fiscal sustainability.
• Streamlining transfers and aligning them with demand-side factors could enhance fiscal efficiency and equity.

Conclusion

This review underscores the importance of reforming public expenditure management to enhance efficiency, equity, and fiscal sustainability in Mexico. It calls for a combination of process reforms, legislative changes, and sector-specific adjustments to address the challenges posed by demographic trends, low oil prices, and increasing public spending demands. The report serves as a foundational analysis to guide Mexico's fiscal policy in the medium and long term.