2010年-世界发展银行全球_Afghanistan_Public_Expenditure_Review_2010___Second_Generation_of_Public_Expenditure_Reforms_34页_4mb

Afghanistan Public Expenditure Review 2010: Second Generation of Public Expenditure Reform

Core Content

This document presents the Afghanistan Public Expenditure Review (PER) 2010, a joint initiative by the World Bank and the UK Department for International Development (DFID). It aims to identify key public expenditure challenges and propose a policy roadmap for improving fiscal sustainability, execution rates, alignment of budgets, and governance.

Main Objectives

• To shift more public expenditures from the external budget to the core budget.
• To ensure that public expenditures better serve national objectives such as poverty reduction and state building.
• To improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public resource management.

Key Challenges

1. Precarious fiscal sustainability:

   • Core operating expenditures have increased faster than domestic revenues, risking macroeconomic stability.
   • The security sector accounts for over 40% of operating expenditures, which is a major concern due to its high costs and dependency on foreign aid.

2. Low execution rates of core development budget expenditures:

   • Core development expenditures remain 9% of GDP undisbursed annually.
   • Execution rates dropped from 54% (2007/08) to 40% (2009/10), primarily due to poor performance in key ministries like the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD) and the Ministry of Public Works (MoPW).

3. Large and poorly aligned external budget:

   • External budget accounts for 75% of public expenditures, and 70% of the core budget is externally financed.
   • This dual budget system undermines the budget's role as a policy tool and weakens government legitimacy.

4. Weak governance of public expenditures:

   • Corruption and lack of accountability are major issues, prompting donors to channel aid through external mechanisms.
   • Improving public financial management (PFM) and governance is essential for long-term reform sustainability.

Strategic Objectives

1. Improved (Non-Security) Fiscal Sustainability

• Strengthen the ratio of domestic revenues to operating expenditures.
• Ensure predictability of grant financing for the core operating budget.
• Implement the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and improve security sector budget predictability.

2. Higher Execution Rates and Better Quality Core Development Expenditures

• Improve budget formulation and execution levels.
• Align the core budget with the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS).
• Enhance project monitoring and evaluation.

3. Better Alignment of External Budget with Core Budget

• Accelerate information sharing between donors and the government.
• Improve sector strategies to align core and external budgets.
• Shift aid from the external budget to the core budget over time, based on PFM improvements.
• Use the Sector-Wide Approach (SWAp) as a foundation for aligning budgets.

4. Improved Governance of Public Expenditures and Sustainability of Reforms

• Advance the Verified Payroll Program (VPP).
• Strengthen internal and external audits.
• Improve public procurement processes.
• Implement a government-led capacity review.
• Roll out the Afghanistan Financial Management System (AFMIS) at the provincial level.

Key Findings and Achievements

• Domestic revenues increased from 3.3% of GDP (2002/03) to 9.4% of GDP (2009/10), significantly improving fiscal sustainability.
• Core budget expenditures more than doubled to US$2.6 billion (2009/10), indicating improved absorption capacity.
• PFM indicators improved in 18 of 28 areas between 2005 and 2007, showing that Afghanistan's PFM system is now better than many low and middle-income countries.
• The fiscal sustainability indicator improved from 38% (2002/03) to 72% (2009/10), though it regressed slightly in 2008/09.

Policy Roadmap until 2012/13

• Short-term: Accelerate information sharing and improve budget execution.
• Medium-term: Align core and external budgets through sector strategies and reforms.
• Long-term: Consolidate the three budgets (core, development, and external) and ensure fiscal sustainability and reform continuity.

Key Stakeholders and Support

• The Ministry of Finance (MoF) and donors were heavily involved.
• Key government officials from MoF, MoE, and other agencies provided inputs.
• Donor support from DFID, USAID, UNDP, and the IMF was crucial.
• The World Bank and DFID collaborated to produce the report, with significant contributions from Afghanistan's government.

Conclusion

The review highlights the need for prioritization and sequencing of reforms to ensure that public expenditures align with national priorities and contribute to poverty reduction and state building. It underscores the importance of strengthening PFM, improving governance, and aligning core and external budgets to achieve fiscal sustainability and effective aid delivery.