2010年-世界发展银行全球_MENA___Recovering_from_the_Crisis_3页_613kb

MENA: Recovering from the Crisis

Core Content

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is recovering from the financial crisis, with an expected regional growth rate of 4.4% in 2010. This recovery is driven by both domestic absorption and positive external demand. The pace and nature of recovery vary across countries, influenced by the three main channels of the crisis: the financial sector, oil prices, and the balance of payments.

Main Groups and Recovery Outlook

1. GCC Oil Exporters

• Growth: Expected to reach 4.4% in 2010, a strong rebound from near-zero growth in 2009.
• Reasons for Recovery: Rebound in oil prices and stabilization of the financial sector.
• Challenges: These countries were heavily impacted by the crisis due to negative terms-of-trade shocks and financial instability. However, accumulated reserves and assets allowed for quick fiscal and monetary responses, preventing deeper economic decline.
• Impact on Region: Their recovery is expected to positively affect other MENA countries through increased remittances and FDI.

2. Developing Oil Exporters

• Growth: Projected to increase from 2.2% in 2009 to 4.2% in 2010.
• Recovery Drivers: Oil price recovery, though limited integration into global financial markets and reliance on oil exports make them vulnerable.
• Vulnerabilities: Iran and Iraq are particularly at risk from oil price fluctuations. The sustainability of their recovery depends on global oil demand and prices.
• Fiscal Response: Most countries have launched stimulus packages, but the effectiveness varies based on fiscal space, reserves, and access to external financing.

3. Oil Importers

• Growth: Expected to decelerate to 4.5% in 2010 from 4.8% in 2009.
• Recovery Factors: Dependent on the recovery of key markets, especially the EU and GCC.
• Trade and Remittances: Trade is recovering, with export revenues expected to grow by 7.7% in 2010. Remittances are projected to rise by 1.3%, though this is slower than pre-crisis levels.

Employment Challenge in MENA

• High Unemployment: A long-standing issue in the region, worsened by the crisis.
• Official Unemployment: Minimal impact on official rates, but participation rates have dropped.
• Sectoral Impact: Manufacturing sectors were particularly affected, while non-tradable goods and services sectors offset some job losses.
• Informal Economy: High levels of informality and low labor force participation, especially among women, contribute to low formal employment rates.

Long-Term Challenges

• Growth Potential: Despite high potential due to resources and a young workforce, long-term growth challenges persist.
• Key Issues:
  • Access to Finance: Very low in the region, with credit tightening affecting vulnerable groups.
  • Competitiveness: Weak business environment and lack of competitiveness hinder private investment.
  • Policy Uncertainty: Discretion in reform implementation and barriers to entry/exit create an uneven playing field.
  • Financial Stability: Weak institutions and market discipline are concerns, especially with the impact of crisis response programs.

World Bank Group Response

• Iraq: Provided financial support through a development policy loan in collaboration with the IMF.
• Oil Importing Countries: Offered technical and financial support for reforms in financial, public, and trade sectors.
• GCC Countries: Focused on economic and financial monitoring.
• IFC Initiatives:
  • Global Trade Finance Program: Assisted small businesses in accessing trade finance.
  • Global Trade Liquidity Program: Injected liquidity into the trade finance market.
  • Support to Banks: Shared insights on risk management, financial systems, and staff training.

Contact Information

• Emmanual Mbi, Director, MNA Operational Core Services Unit
• David Steel, Manager, MNA Development Effectiveness Unit
• Regional Quick Notes Team: Omer Karasapan, Roby Fields, Hafed Al-Ghwell, and Aliya Jalloh
• Tel: (202) 473 8177
• Website: http://www.worldbank.org/mena-quicknotes

Key Takeaways

• The MENA region is recovering from the crisis, but the pace varies by country.
• GCC countries are leading the recovery due to oil price rebounds and financial sector stability.
• Developing oil exporters are also recovering, but their long-term stability depends on oil prices and global demand.
• Oil importers are more vulnerable and their recovery is closely tied to external markets.
• High unemployment and structural issues in the business environment remain significant challenges.
• The World Bank Group has been active in supporting recovery and reform across the region.