2024-04-29-牛津经济研究院-WTO解散对发展经济的影响（英）_20页_7mb

Summary

WTO dissolution would significantly harm developing economies through multiple channels. The analysis presents a conservative scenario, estimating that exports of developing countries (low-income: 43% reduction; middle-income: 32% reduction) would decline by about 33% by 2030 due to increased trade costs, complex regional fragmentation, and reduced access to major markets. Further consequences include losses in inward FDI (approximately 5%) and productivity (around 3%), predictably affecting poorer nations the most.

Long-term GDP losses rise steeply, with a cumulative drop of 5.1% for the developing block as a whole by 2030. Low-income nations face significant adjustment challenges due to intensified global fragmentation. Geoeconomic blocs will likely emerge, with developing regions reliant on trade showing stunted economic convergence with developed markets.

High-income economies may also face supply chain disruptions and increased economic volatility. The study highlights that these findings, based on gravity models and carefully calibrated inputs from a global economic model, underscore the irreparable damage to long-term development prospects.