20140409-Maybank_KERPL-Positive_pointers_from_HK_NDR_11页_371kb

报告摘要

Agile Property (3383 HK) Summary

Core Information

Share Price: HKD 6.95
Target Price: HKD 8.90 (+28%)
Market Cap (USD): $3.1B
Average Daily Trading Volume (USD): $8M
Country: China
Sector: Real Estate
Recommendation: BUY (Unchanged)

Positive Points from HK NDR

Reiterate BUY and unchanged target price of HKD8.90.
Expect FY14 presales to exceed CNY48b as the first step in re-rating.
Projected net debt/total equity for 2015 to be approximately 61.9%, down from 72% in 2013.
Management expects 2015 net debt/attributable equity to be 77.4%, showing a downward trend.
Executive board changes are viewed positively, with the recruitment of staff from Vanke and COLI expected to aid performance.
The company has rolled out a share award scheme and adjusted KPIs to include profitability alongside sales.

1Q14 Sales Performance

1Q14 presales: CNY10.3b, accounting for 21.5% of the full-year target of CNY48b.
March presales: CNY4.63b, up 47% MoM and 43% YoY.
ASP (Average Selling Price): CNY10,566/sq m, 8.7% below 2013's ASP of CNY11,577/sq m.
1Q14 presales ASP: CNY11,365/sq m, similar to 2013's level.

2014 Presales Target

2014 presales target: CNY48b, an 19% increase YoY.
The company's internal target is higher than the official one, but it is conservative to manage expectations.
Management expects 40-45% of the full-year presales to be achieved in 1H14.
Inventory: As of end-2013, there was 1.8-1.9m sq m of completed and unsold inventory.
Discount campaigns: Already underway on some inventory units, with a focus on end users' and upgraders' products.
New projects: Expected to increase to 18 in 2014 from 13 in 2013, raising the total number of projects on sale to 78.
Sell-through ratio: Targeted to rise to 57-58% in 2014 from ~51-52% in 2013.

Financial Highlights

Metric	FY11A	FY12A	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E
Revenue (CNY m)	22,944.6	30,074.0	35,436.4	43,924.2	51,217.3
EBITDA (CNY m)	10,712.1	10,413.9	10,502.4	11,733.5	13,570.7
Core Net Profit (CNY m)	4,035.2	4,655.7	4,464.7	4,915.5	5,698.5
Core EPS (CNY)	1.16	1.35	1.30	1.41	1.64
Core EPS Growth (%)	9.9	15.4	(4.1)	10.1	15.9
Net DPS (CNY)	0.28	0.31	0.38	0.40	0.43
Core P/E (x)	4.8	4.1	4.3	3.9	3.4
P/BV (x)	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.5
Net Dividend Yield (%)	5.0	5.5	6.8	7.1	7.6
GPM (%)	53.8	41.4	35.6	34.4	34.0
ROAE (%)	18.3	18.0	13.8	12.5	12.7
Net Debt/Total Equity (%)	65.5	64.0	72.4	67.3	61.9
Net Debt/Attributable Equity (%)	67.8	69.8	90.1	83.2	77.4

Valuation and Market Position

Discount to NAV: ~61%.
P/BV: 0.58x, indicating a significant discount.
Forward P/E: 3.2x (2014F), 3.9x (2015F).
Forward P/BV: 0.48x (2014F), 0.58x (2015F).
Valuation: Despite recent run-up, still seen as attractive.
Comparison with peers:
- COLI: P/BV 1.37x, P/E 7.5x.
- Country Garden: P/BV 0.82x, P/E 3.1x.
- SOHO China: P/BV 0.61x, P/E 2.7x.

Key Risks

Potential downside risks include unexpected macro developments, slower-than-expected turnaround, and de-leveraging taking longer than anticipated.

Additional Notes

Share Price Performance:
- 1Mth: +6.4%
- 3Mth: -13.4%
- 12Mth: -24.0%
Relative to index:
- 1Mth: +7.8%
- 3Mth: -11.1%
- 12Mth: -26.2%

Conclusion

Agile Property is positioned as a BUY with a target price of HKD8.90. The company is expected to exceed its FY14 presales target due to a conservative approach and flexible pricing strategies. Despite a high debt level, the company is expected to de-lever over time, with improved performance anticipated in 2015. The valuation remains attractive, with discounts to NAV and low P/E and P/BV ratios. The executive board changes and new projects are viewed positively, and improved communication with investors is expected to be a catalyst for the stock.