2017年-世界发展银行全球_Precarious_Drop___Reassessing_Patterns_of_Female_Labor_Force_Participation_in_India_41页_852kb

Summary of "Precarious Drop: Reassessing Patterns of Female Labor Force Participation in India"

Core Content

This paper examines the trends and determinants of female labor force participation (FLFP) in India from 1993-94 to 2011-12 using successive rounds of National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) data and census data. The study highlights a significant decline in FLFP, particularly among younger women in rural areas, and explores the underlying factors contributing to this trend.

Main Findings

• Overall Decline in FLFP: The FLFP rate in India dropped from 42.6% in 1993-94 to 31.2% in 2011-12, a decline of 11.4 percentage points.
• Magnitude of the Drop: A total of 19.6 million women left the labor force between 2004-05 and 2011-12.
• Rural vs. Urban Decline: Approximately 53% of the drop occurred in rural areas, especially among women aged 15 to 24 years.
• Age Cohort Analysis: The drop was most pronounced among the 15 to 24 age group, with a 17.1 percentage point decline in rural areas and a 7.9 percentage point decline in urban areas.
• Urban Trends: Urban FLFP rates showed a slight recovery, increasing from 19.4% in 2009-10 to 20.5% in 2011-12, though the overall trend remained downward.
• Education and Socioeconomic Factors: There is a U-shaped relationship between educational attainment and FLFP. Higher education levels are associated with both lower and higher participation, with the lowest participation at intermediate education levels.
• Household Composition and Income Stability: The increasing share of regular wage earners and the declining share of casual labor in the family labor supply composition indicate a shift in household income stability, leading to fewer women joining the labor force.
• Policy Implications: The study suggests that conventional policies focusing on education and legal provisions may not be sufficient to increase FLFP. Instead, policies should focus on promoting the acceptability of female employment and investing in sectors that are more attractive for women.

Key Determinants

• Educational Attainment: A U-shaped relationship was found, where both low and high education levels are associated with higher FLFP, while intermediate levels show lower participation.
• Socioeconomic Status: Higher socioeconomic status is linked to increased FLFP, but this effect is more pronounced in rural areas.
• Household Composition: The shift from casual to regular wage employment in households has led to a decline in female labor force participation.
• Demographic Changes: The decline in FLFP was most significant among younger women, indicating a shift in labor market behavior and expectations.

Methodology

• Data Sources: The study uses NSSO data from 1993-94 to 2011-12 and census data for population projections.
• Projection Technique: Population figures for NSSO survey years were interpolated using compound annual growth rates from census data.
• Decomposition Analysis: The Shapley decomposition technique was used to isolate the relative contribution of each factor to the FLFP decision.
• Comparison with Prior Studies: The study compares its estimates with those from previous research, finding consistency in the magnitude of the decline.

Conclusion

• The decline in FLFP in India, particularly in rural areas, is a significant concern for economic development.
• The shift in household income stability and changing social norms are key drivers of the drop in FLFP.
• Policies aimed at increasing FLFP should focus on both promoting the acceptability of female employment and creating more inclusive economic opportunities for women.

Tables and Figures

• Table 2: Female labor force participation rates for different age groups and regions.
• Table 3: Projected female population and FLFP figures for different census and survey years.
• Table 4: Change in male and female labor force participation across rounds.
• Table 5: Comparison of FLFP estimates with prior studies.
• Table 6: Distribution of the drop in FLFP across age groups.
• Table 7: Intertemporal changes in FLFP rates by age group in rural and urban areas.
• Table 8: Female labor force participation and school attendance rates.

Authors and Affiliations

• Luis A. Andres, Basab Dasgupta, George Joseph, Vinoj Abraham, and Maria Correia.
• Luis A. Andres and George Joseph are from the World Bank, while Basab Dasgupta is from Social Impact Inc and Vinoj Abraham is from the Center for Development Studies in India.

Disclaimer

• The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank or its affiliated organizations.