IMF-埃塞俄比亚-财政联邦主义_中期财政政策考虑（英）-2025_18页_1mb

IMF Selected Issues Paper: Ethiopia - Fiscal Federalism
Fiscal Policy Considerations for the Medium Term

A. Fiscal Federalism Framework

• Ethiopia's fiscal federalism, established in the 1994 Constitution, devolves significant expenditure responsibilities to regions while limiting certain taxing powers.
• Revenue sources are split: federal collects trade taxes, indirect taxes, and has exclusive powers; regions collect direct taxes (PIT, royalties) and some concurrent revenue.
• Ethiopia is relatively decentralized compared to most Sub-Saharan African countries.
• Seventeen legislative changes reforming intergovernmental relations between federal and regional governments have occurred.

B. Fiscal Developments and Revenue Considerations

• There has been a narrowing of vertical fiscal gaps over time, aided by reforms increasing regional revenue shares.
• Recent reforms (FY2020/21) significantly increased regional shares of VAT (50%) and royalties (75%).
• Challenges remain in:
  • Managing fragmentation's impact on equal payments and trade.
  • Fostering tax administrative capacity at the regional level.
  • Reforms affecting property taxes in federal cities (Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa).
• Changes in federal revenue assignment (notably international trade and excises) may worsen vertical fiscal gaps due to concentration in Addis Ababa.

C. Fiscal Transfers Framework

• General Purpose Grants (GPGs): Address vertical fiscal gaps, meet equalization needs (reducing horizontal imbalances), and leverage regional progress towards national goals like health, education, and basic infrastructure. Grant size is set by the federal budget, but allocation criteria at the House of Federation lack region feedback mechanisms. The framework is clear, though new regions still lack a formula.
• Targeted Grants: Fund specific programs like PSNPs.
• Formula: Balances revenue loss (norms approach based on previous performance) and expenditure needs. A sub-pool supports the least developed regions.

D. Fiscal Gaps and Macroeconomic/Stabilization Effects

• GPGs correlate positively with poverty reduction but do not entirely offset fiscal capacity disparities. Improving grant formula transparency and updating data for empirical projections is crucial.
• Policy coordination between federal and regional governments on fiscal policy, investments, and climate initiatives is needed.
• The federal government provides insurance against regional macro-shocks via programs like PSNP.
• Ethiopia's decentralized system lacks an independent central unit (Parliamentary Assembly of the Federation) independent of theexecutive to manage intergovernmental transfers effectively. Capacity building is necessary for smooth implementation.

E. Components of Fiscal Consolidation

• Strengthening regional budgetary frameworks and fiscal space through revenue mobilization.
• Improving regional tax administration.
• Further developing GPG frameworks to achieve equalization and counter capacity constraints.
• coordinating fiscal policy for stabilization across federal and regional levels.
• Policies to enhance fiscal anchors and protect against regional pressure tax revenue loss.

F. Minimum Support for Fiscal Sustainability

• Strengthening tax administration, modernizing revenue collection, and legislative reforms (including resource mobilization) are prerequisites.
• Curtailment of foreign aid disproportionately hurts regions with high disaster and humanitarian spending needs. A national disaster risk management fund could improve coordination.