2016年-世界发展银行全球_Myanmar-World_Bank_Group_Partnership___Country_Program_Snapshot_52页_8mb

Myanmar - World Bank Group Partnership Summary

Core Content

The World Bank Group (WBG) has developed a Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Myanmar covering the period 2015-2017, aimed at supporting the country's historic transition towards peace, prosperity, and inclusive growth. The CPF builds on the economic reforms initiated in 2011 and the lessons learned from the WBG's reengagement in Myanmar since 2012. It outlines a strategic approach to reduce extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity through three main focus areas: reducing rural poverty, investing in people and effective institutions, and supporting a dynamic private sector to create jobs.

Main Points

Recent Economic Developments

• Growth Performance: Myanmar's economy grew at an estimated 8.5% in real terms in 2014/15, driven by public consumption, private investment, and the services sector. Agricultural output improved after two years of stagnation, while manufacturing and industry remained strong due to gas exports.
• Balance of Payments: The current account deficit widened to over 6% of GDP in 2014/15 due to increased demand for capital imports. Gas remains a key export, accounting for about 40% of merchandise exports.
• Inflation: Inflationary pressures increased during 2014/15, reaching 10% by July 2015. This was primarily due to supply-side disruptions and currency depreciation.
• Monetary Sector: The Kyat depreciated by around 20% against the US Dollar in 2015, partly due to the current account deficit and slowing foreign investment. The Central Bank's efforts to allow greater exchange rate flexibility helped curb the parallel market.
• Fiscal Status: The general government budget deficit was estimated at 4% of GDP in 2014/15. Revenue performance was bolstered by telecom license receipts, while tax reforms are beginning to yield results.

Economic Outlook

• Growth: Real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 6.5% in 2015/16, with potential for recovery in the medium term if reforms continue.
• Challenges: The floods in 2015 will likely reduce agricultural output and increase inflation. Slowing growth in China and low international commodity prices pose external risks.
• Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Continued fiscal and monetary discipline is necessary to address short-term macroeconomic challenges and support long-term growth.

Poverty Profile

• Poverty Rates: Over a third of Myanmar's population (about 19 million) lived in poverty in 2009/10, unable to meet basic needs.
• Spatial Distribution: Poverty is highest in conflict-affected areas (e.g., Rakhine, Chin) and the coastal zone (53.1%), and lowest in the dry zone (29.5%).
• Child Poverty: Poverty has severe consequences for children, with high child mortality and stunting rates. Dropout rates are high, especially in rural areas, and are more pronounced among the poorest households.
• Basic Services Access: About 70% of the population lacks access to electricity, 30.5% to clean water, and 25.7% to improved sanitation. Rural infrastructure is severely underdeveloped.

Governance Profile

• Governance Challenges: Myanmar has a legacy of centralized authority and weak public institutions. There are significant gaps in transparency, accountability, and anti-corruption mechanisms.
• Recent Improvements: Myanmar has joined international transparency initiatives like the Open Government Partnership and EITI. New institutions such as the Anti-Corruption Commission and Rule of Law Commission have been established.
• Corporate Governance: Governance standards in the private sector remain low, with many state-owned enterprises lacking transparency and effective oversight.
• WBG Focus: The WBG supports governance improvements through project-level integration, sector engagement, and country-level reviews, aiming to build institutional capacity and promote transparency.

Country Partnership Framework (CPF) 2015-2017

Executive Summary

• The CPF is the first comprehensive country strategy since 1984 and aligns with Myanmar's development priorities and reform agenda.
• The CPF focuses on three key areas: reducing rural poverty, investing in people and institutions, and supporting a dynamic private sector.
• It integrates four cross-cutting issues: gender, conflict, governance, and climate change/disaster risk.

Key Activities

• Reducing Rural Poverty:

  • Support for agricultural development, rural electrification, and community-driven development.
  • Projects include the National Community Driven Development Program, Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project, and the Agricultural Development Support Project.

• Investing in People and Institutions:

  • Improve access to education, health, and social services.
  • Projects include the Modernization of Public Finance Management, Decentralizing Funding to Schools, and the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative.

• Supporting a Dynamic Private Sector:

  • Promote private sector growth through investments in infrastructure, trade, and financial services.
  • Projects include the Electric Power Project, Telecommunications Sector Reform, and the National Electrification Plan.

Leveraging Knowledge for Development

• The WBG supports knowledge-based initiatives to inform policy and development strategies.
• These include poverty analytical services, social and economic monitoring, and development of a national strategy for statistics.
• The WBG also supports the Myanmar peace process and trade facilitation efforts, including the Diagnostic Trade Integration Study.

Results to be Achieved

• The CPF aims to reduce extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity by improving access to services, promoting inclusive growth, and supporting private sector development.
• It emphasizes the importance of governance, gender equality, and addressing the impact of climate and disaster risks on vulnerable populations.

The Power of Partnerships

• The CPF includes a Myanmar Multi-Donor Trust Fund, which is expected to mobilize significant resources for development.
• The WBG works closely with the Government and other development partners to align its efforts with national priorities and reform goals.

Active Lending Portfolio

• IDA Portfolio: Myanmar's provisional IDA 17 allocation is about $1.6 billion, with an indicative program that includes frontloading.
• IFC Portfolio: IFC plans to invest up to $1 billion over the CPF period and provide $20 million in technical assistance.
• MIGA: Provides insurance against political risks to support private investment.

Conclusion

The WBG's CPF for Myanmar is a strategic initiative aimed at supporting the country's transition to a more open, integrated, and inclusive economy. It addresses key challenges in poverty reduction, governance, and infrastructure development, while promoting sustainable private sector growth and social empowerment. The success of this program will depend on continued reform efforts, effective implementation, and strong partnerships between the WBG, the Government, and other stakeholders.