20240201-招银国际-PMI_signals_weak_demand___continuous_deflation_5页_519kb

January 2024 manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2% but remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month due to weak demand; production improved slightly, but new orders and export orders continued to contract, existing orders further dropped. Services PMI rebounded, but construction slowed; deflation pressure escalated as ex-factory prices and service prices contracted. Employment remained acute with manufacturing and services indices declining. The economy requires aggressive policy support, including potential LPR cuts, fiscal expansion, and mortgage rate reductions; GDP growth is forecasted at 4.8% for 2024.