越南生猪市场（英文版）_13页_1009kb

Summary of the Vietnam Swine Market Report

Core Content

This report examines the challenges and future prospects of Vietnam's swine industry from 2013 to 2017, with a focus on the impact of China's import policies and the structural changes within the Chinese swine sector. It also explores the implications of undocumented cross-border trade, particularly with China, and outlines potential strategies for feed and animal health companies to adapt to the evolving market conditions.

Main Points

• Swine Farming in Vietnam: Swine farming is a crucial part of Vietnam's agriculture, contributing to about two-thirds of total meat production. Between 2013 and 2016, the hog population grew significantly, driven by improved sow productivity and increased investment in swine production.

• China's Influence on Vietnam's Market: China's swine industry restructuring, including environmental regulations and farm consolidation, led to a sharp decline in domestic pork supply, increasing demand for imported pork, particularly from Vietnam. This created a surge in undocumented hog exports to China, with daily trade volumes rising to around 33,000 hogs by early 2016.

• Impact of Reduced Imports: In mid-2016, China reduced its imports from Vietnam, leading to a sharp drop in ex-farm prices. This caused a significant oversupply in Vietnam, with hog numbers peaking at around 7.05 million, and many small-scale farms facing losses or halting production.

• Market Outlook for 2017: The report outlines two potential scenarios for 2017:

  • Pessimistic Scenario: Hog trading with China remains low, with daily exports at 3,200 hogs, leading to a significant surplus and continued low prices.
  • Optimistic Scenario: Hog exports to China increase to around 6,600 hogs per day, narrowing the supply-demand gap and reducing the surplus to approximately 104,750 hogs.

• Domestic and Export Demand: Domestic demand in Vietnam accounts for about 75% of total pork output. Legal exports to Hong Kong and Malaysia remain a small portion, while undocumented exports to China are a major component of total demand.

• Future Projections: Local pork consumption is expected to rise to around 2.68 million tonnes in 2018. However, the export market remains constrained by global standards like GLOBALG.A.P., which increase the cost of compliance.

Key Information

• Sow Productivity:

  • Small-scale farms: ~17 hogs per sow per year.
  • Commercial farms: ~20 hogs per sow per year.
  • Integrated farms: ~22 hogs per sow per year.

• Import Trends:

  • From 2013 to 2015, imports represented ~0.1% of total supply.
  • In 2016, this rose to ~1.06% due to the EVFTA and AEC agreements.

• Price Volatility:

  • Ex-farm prices dropped from USD 2.25 per kg in 2016 to USD 1.10 per kg in April 2017.
  • Small-scale farms are particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations and may stop production until prices improve.

• Cost Management Strategies:

  • Feed accounts for 65–70% of total production costs.
  • Small-scale farms can reduce feed costs by mixing with cheaper ingredients.
  • Biosecurity measures are cost-effective and can reduce disease outbreaks and associated costs.

• Industry Shifts:

  • There is a trend towards semi-industrial and industrial farms, which may lead to increased efficiency and reduced reliance on small-scale production.
  • Feed and animal health players are advised to support these shifts through cost-effective solutions and to monitor market trends closely.

Scenarios for 2017

Strategic Recommendations

• Adapt to Market Trends: Companies should monitor the market closely and adjust their strategies accordingly.
• Focus on Cost Reduction: Feed and animal health providers should explore cost-cutting measures such as feed mixing and biosecurity practices.
• Support Long-Term Solutions: Encourage the adoption of biosecurity and other sustainable practices to build long-term trust with farmers.
• Leverage Business Unit Strategy: Ipsos Business Consulting recommends a 5-stage Business Unit Strategy to optimize business models and enhance competitiveness.

Conclusion

The Vietnam swine market is facing a challenging outlook due to the uncertainty surrounding China's import policies and the structural changes in its own industry. While there is potential for recovery, it is contingent on the resumption of significant trade volumes with China. Feed and animal health companies are advised to remain agile, focus on cost efficiency, and support the transition from small-scale to more industrialized farming practices to ensure long-term viability and competitiveness.