2025-06-09-花旗集团-艾伯维（ABBV）_艾伯维（ABBV.N）_首席执行官_首席财务官电话会议系列_艾伯维讨论中的五大引述_11页_292kb

报告摘要

Citi Research maintains a neutral investment rating and a target price of $205 per share for AbbVie. The valuation is based on a DCF model projecting free cash flows through 2030, with moderate growth assumptions.

Policy and Tax Reform:
- Specific policy details are unclear, but tax reform is seen as the industry preference for incentivizing R&D and manufacturing on-shoring.
- Potential tariff impacts are expected to align with peers due to comparable tax rates, countering misconceptions from past lower rates.
Skyrizi/Rinvoq Commercial Outlook:
- Strong performance in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) drives current momentum.
- Additional indications (e.g., GCA, alopecia areata, lupus) are expected to boost peak sales by approximately $2 billion by the end of the decade, with further commercial momentum.
Metabolics Space Entry:
- The amylin asset partnership marks the beginning of AbbVie's foray into metabolics, with excitement for the class's potential in tolerability and high market growth. The company plans to explore multiple mechanisms and assets in this space.
Neurology Focus:
- AbbVie remains committed to neuroscience, aiming to become a leading player. Obesity and neuroscience assets are key areas, with no constraints on R&D focus.

Valuation: DCF-derived intrinsic value of $205 per share (WACC 7.6%, terminal growth 1%).
Upside Catalysts: Continued Skyrizi/Rinvoq momentum, success of pipeline agents mitigating Humira loss of exclusivity (LOE), potential defunct agents (e.g., emraclidine).
Downside Risks: Commercial underperformance of key products, failure of pipeline assets, competitive pressures on Botox, or unanticipated impacts from policy or tariffs.

For further details, refer to the full report here.

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