2003年-世界发展银行全球_Azerbaijan___Public_Expenditure_Review_167页_11mb

报告摘要

Azerbaijan Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This document, Report No. 25233-AZ, is a Public Expenditure Review (PER) conducted by the World Bank in April 2003. It provides an in-depth analysis of the fiscal and public expenditure management challenges facing Azerbaijan, particularly in the context of its oil and gas windfall and the need to promote sustainable economic development and poverty reduction.

Main Objectives

To provide a framework for more efficient use of public resources and effective poverty reduction.
To ensure macroeconomic and financial stability while promoting balanced growth between the oil and non-oil sectors.
To inform policy choices for lasting poverty reduction and increased incomes.
To promote fiscal sustainability within a stable macroeconomic and monetary framework.

Key Challenges

Poverty remains pervasive, despite economic growth driven by the oil sector.
Social indicators have deteriorated, and non-oil sector growth has been modest.
Oil revenue may lead to macroeconomic instabilities, inefficient non-oil activities, or both if not managed properly.
Dutch disease risks due to excess foreign exchange inflows and excessive fiscal spending.
Institutional weaknesses and structural deficiencies need to be addressed to ensure sound fiscal management.

Main Recommendations

Azerbaijan should follow a fiscal strategy consistent with sustainable development of the non-oil sector.
Institutional reforms and strengthening of implementation capacity are crucial.
Public investment should be directed towards education, health, social protection, and rural development.
Fiscal decentralization should be supported to empower local governments and improve service delivery.
Data collection and analysis must be improved to monitor progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and ensure transparency.

Key Information

Economic Background

Azerbaijan has experienced robust economic growth over the past seven years, driven by oil sector development.
However, poverty is still widespread, and social indicators have worsened.
The oil and gas windfall can be beneficial if combined with sound macroeconomic policies and effective fiscal management.
The transition to a market economy has been accompanied by expenditure cuts and institutional reforms.

Macroeconomic Management

The macroeconomic outlook is favorable, but the non-oil sector is expected to grow at a more modest pace.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) and profit repatriation from oil companies have led to significant outflows.
This creates a discrepancy between high GDP growth and limited domestic absorption of resources.
The risk of Dutch disease is a major concern, which could harm the competitiveness of the non-oil sector.

Fiscal and Institutional Framework

The State Oil Fund (SOFAR) has been established to separate commercial decisions from public spending decisions.
It allows for flexibility in public expenditure and monetary stability.
Institutional reforms are needed to improve financial controls, auditing, and public expenditure management.
The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Public Investment Program (PIP) are central to poverty reduction and fiscal sustainability.

Sectoral Agenda

Education: Improving productivity and quality of services, and increasing access to education.
Health: Reducing infant and maternal mortality, and improving health system performance.
Social Protection: Enhancing targeting and funding, and substituting in-kind subsidies with cash transfers.
Rural Development: Improving access to basic services, energy, water, and infrastructure.
Urban Development: Increasing employment opportunities, labor mobility, and skills development.
Agriculture and Rural Development: Promoting productivity, privatization, and infrastructure improvements.

Conclusion

The PER emphasizes the importance of sustainable development, institutional reforms, and effective public expenditure management.
It serves as a guide for the Government and external donors to make informed policy decisions.
The national Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) is a cornerstone for future development, and the MTEF and PIP will be key tools in addressing poverty and fiscal sustainability.

Key Acronyms

AIOC: Azerbaijan International Operating Company
ARWC: Abspheron Regional Water Company
BOP: Balance of Payments
BPMS: Basic Package of Medical Services
BSL: Budget System Law
BTC: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
CA: Chamber of Audits
CAB: Current Account Balance
CEEC: Central and Eastern European Countries
CFAA: Country Financial Accountability Assessment
CHCP: Committee for Housing and Communal Property
CIS: Commonwealth of Independent States
CPAR: Country Procurement Assessment Report
CPI: Consumer Price Index
DECDG: Development Economics Data Group
EBRD: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ECA: Europe and Central Asia
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
FSU: Former Soviet Union
GNFS: Goods and Non-Factor Services
IAS: International Accounting Standards
IBTA: Institution Building Technical Assistance
IDA: International Development Association
IDPs: Internally Displaced Populations
IFS: International Financial Statistics
IMF: International Monetary Fund
I-PRSP: Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
MDPFC: Main Department of Public Finance Control
MED: Ministry of Economic Development
MICS: Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey
MOA: Ministry of Agriculture
MOE: Ministry of Education
MOF: Ministry of Finance
MOH: Ministry of Health
MLSPP: Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population
MTEF: Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
MTPES: Medium-Term Public Expenditure Strategy
NBA: National Bank of Azerbaijan
NGO: Non-Governmental Organization
OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
PER: Public Expenditure Review
PIH: Permanent Income Hypothesis
PIP: Public Investment Program
PPL: Public Procurement Law
PRS: Poverty Reduction Strategy
PRSP: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
PSA: Production Sharing Agreement
SAC: Structural Adjustment Credit
SME: Small and Medium Enterprises
SOCAR: State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic
SOF: State Oil Fund
SPA: State Procurement Agency
SPF: Social Protection Fund
SPL: State Procurement Law
SSC: State Statistical Committee
SWC: State Water Committee
TFP: Total Factor Productivity
TIMS: Treasury Information Management System
UNCITRAL: United Nations Commission for International Trade Law
UNICEF: United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund
WUAs: Water User Associations
VAT: Value-Added Tax

Summary of Key Findings

Economic Growth: Strong due to oil and gas sector development.
Poverty: Still high, with 50% of the population in poverty and 17% in extreme poverty in 2001.
Fiscal Challenges: Rapid accumulation of oil revenues may lead to macroeconomic instability and inefficient non-oil activities.
Dutch Disease Risk: Excess foreign exchange inflows may weaken the non-oil sector.
Institutional Reforms: Needed to improve public expenditure management and fiscal sustainability.
Sectoral Priorities: Emphasis on education, health, social protection, and rural development.
Fiscal Decentralization: Can empower local governments but may also lead to local capture if not properly managed.
Data Collection: Must be improved to monitor progress and comparability with other countries.

Conclusion

This PER serves as a strategic guide for Azerbaijan to manage its oil windfall effectively and promote sustainable development. It emphasizes the need for institutional reforms, efficient public expenditure, and targeted poverty reduction efforts. The PER is an important tool in the World Bank's engagement with Azerbaijan, and it highlights the importance of fiscal sustainability and balanced growth.