2024-10-27-世界银行-金融深化与碳排放强度_来自全球国家样本的证据（英）_36页_1mb

Financial Deepening and Carbon Emissions Intensity: Global Evidence

Summary

This paper examines the effect of financial deepening (increase in bank credit as a share of GDP) on carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of GDP across 125 economies from 1990 to 2019. Using a local projections approach, the study finds that financial deepening generally leads to an increase in carbon intensity, but the effect varies significantly based on country-level characteristics.

Key Findings

1. Baseline Effect: Financial deepening contributes to higher CO₂ emissions per dollar of GDP over the medium term. A one-standard-deviation increase in credit-to-GDP raises CO₂ emissions by about 0.6 percentage points over five years, reducing the potential decline in emissions by 13% on average.

2. Institutional Moderation: Institutional factors can mitigate this adverse effect:

   • Environmental Regulations: Countries with stronger environmental laws saw no significant increase in emissions following financial deepening.
   • Rule of Law: A stronger institutional environment reduces the negative impact.
   • Financial Structure: Market-based financial systems were more effective in limiting emissions increases compared to bank-based systems.

3. Heterogeneous Effects by Initial Carbon Intensity:

   • Countries with initially lower carbon intensity benefited more from environmental regulations and rule of law to mitigate emissions increases.
   • Those with higher initial carbon intensity improved outcomes through environmental regulations.

4. Robustness Checks: Results held despite using alternative financial deepening measures (e.g., Svirydzenka index), focusing on credit booms, and addressing econometric issues like Nickell bias.

Policy Implications

• Strengthening institutional quality, environmental regulations, and transitioning toward market-based financial systems can help balance economic growth with environmental sustainability.
• Countries should tailor policy reforms—e.g., improving rule of law for low-carbon economies and enhancing environmental regulations for high-carbon ones—to manage the trade-offs between finance-driven growth and emission reduction.