2000年-世界发展银行全球_The_Savings_Collapse_during_the_Transition_in_Eastern_Europe_20页_870kb

Summary of "The Savings Collapse during the Transition in Eastern Europe"

Core Content

This paper investigates the savings collapse in Eastern European transition economies between 1989 and 1995, analyzing whether the decline was due to the elimination of involuntary savings or a shift in equilibrium savings due to changing economic conditions. The study focuses on the transition from planned to market economies and how this affected savings behavior.

Main Findings

• Savings rates in Eastern Europe dropped sharply from pre-transition levels (around 30% of GDP) to approximately 10–15% in the early transition years, before a slight recovery.
• The collapse is attributed to the elimination of involuntary savings, which were high due to price controls and rationing systems that restricted access to goods.
• Involuntary savings were estimated by comparing actual savings rates with predicted savings rates for market economies, assuming the same economic fundamentals.
• The predicted savings rates were generally lower than actual rates, especially for the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the Baltic states, indicating excessive pre-transition savings.
• The gap between actual and predicted savings widened in the early 1990s due to terms of trade shocks and initial growth collapse, not because of a decline in actual savings.

Key Determinants of Savings

• Dependency ratio and urbanization ratio had a negative effect on savings rates in both transition and market economies.
• War had a negative impact on savings, consistent across both types of economies.
• GDP per capita had a positive association with savings, though this effect weakened over time.
• CPI inflation had a negative effect on savings, but this became statistically insignificant by 1995.
• M2/GDP ratio showed positive effects on savings in transition economies, while market economies showed negative or insignificant effects.

Role of Economic Liberalization

• Liberalization (measured by an index of internal, external, and price liberalization) was associated with lower savings, particularly with a one-year lag.
• The negative effect of liberalization on savings is consistent with consumption smoothing in the face of a J-curve adjustment in output growth.
• Price liberalization had a more significant negative impact on savings than internal or external liberalization.

Methodology

• The paper uses a regression framework to estimate predicted savings rates based on market economy data.
• It compares these predicted rates with actual savings rates in transition economies to assess the presence of involuntary savings.
• Involuntary savings are defined as savings that occur due to binding consumption limits and dis-equilibrium in goods markets.
• The data includes ten Central and Eastern European countries, three Baltic states, and twelve FSU successor states.

Conclusion

• The savings collapse in Eastern Europe was primarily due to the elimination of involuntary savings as price controls were removed.
• The decline in savings is also linked to changes in equilibrium savings behavior, especially in response to economic uncertainty and consumption smoothing during the transition period.
• Economic liberalization played a role in reducing savings, likely due to the initial shock of the J-curve and increased uncertainty in income and prices.

Key Information

• Time Period: 1989–1995
• Countries Studied: Central and Eastern Europe, Baltic states, and FSU successor states
• Methodology: Regression analysis using market economy data to predict savings in transition economies
• Main Variables: GDP growth, M2/GDP ratio, CPI inflation, terms of trade, dependency ratio, urbanization ratio, GDP per capita, and war dummy
• Findings: Involuntary savings were significant in the FSU and Baltic states, while consumption smoothing and economic uncertainty contributed to the savings decline in Central Europe

Summary Table

References

• Dornbusch and Wolf (2000)
• Edwards (1993, 1995)
• Loayza, Schmidt-Hebbel and Serven (1998)
• De Melo, Denizer and Gelb (1996)
• Ostry and Reinhart (1992)
• Bayoumi, Masson and Samiei (1995)