2002年-世界发展银行全球_Transition_The_First_Ten_Years___Analysis_and_Lessons_for_Eastern_Europe_and_the_Former_Soviet_Union_164页_10mb

Summary of "Analysis and Lessons for Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union"

Core Content

This report analyzes the economic and political transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union over the first decade of transition (1991–2000). It outlines the key challenges and lessons learned from this process, emphasizing the importance of balancing discipline and encouragement in economic reforms.

The report highlights that while initial conditions were critical in explaining the early decline in output, the intensity and direction of reform policies played a major role in determining recovery and growth trajectories. It also stresses the need for legal and institutional reforms to support market mechanisms and protect minority shareholders, as well as the importance of social policies to cushion the transition's impact on vulnerable populations.

Main Views

Economic Growth and Transition

• Output fell sharply in the early years of transition due to the collapse of the centrally planned economy.
• Industry shrank, while services grew and private enterprises overtook the state sector in many countries.
• Exports increased, signaling a shift toward industrialized countries.
• Poverty rose sharply, especially in CIS countries, with income inequality increasing significantly in some regions.

Policy and Institutional Challenges

• Discipline is necessary to impose hard budget constraints on old enterprises and prevent soft budget constraints that lead to inefficiency and fiscal crises.
• Encouragement is needed to support the growth of new enterprises, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are more productive and have a greater potential for economic growth.
• Privatization is crucial for economic reform, as it facilitates hard budget constraints and investment in new firms.
• Legal and regulatory institutions must be strengthened to ensure fair competition, transparency, and protection of minority shareholders.
• Fiscal policy plays a key role in reducing inequality and supporting social safety nets while promoting growth.

Political Economy of Transition

• Political systems significantly influence the choice and success of economic reforms.
• Competitive democracies in Central Europe and the Baltics have led to more successful reforms, while CIS countries have faced more challenges due to corruption, rent-seeking, and concentrated political power.
• Winners and losers from reforms can create resistance to further changes, especially if they feel their initial benefits are threatened.
• Social transfers and redistribution mechanisms have helped reduce the impact of inequality in the CSB, but such mechanisms are less effective in CIS countries.

Key Information

Performance of Transition Economies

• Central and Southeastern Europe (CSB): GDP recovered to 1990 levels by 1998 and exceeded them by 6% in 2000.
• Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): GDP in 2000 was only 63% of its 1990 level.
• Poland (CSB): GDP increased by over 40% between 1990 and 1999.
• Russia (CIS): GDP fell by 40% during the same period.
• Poverty: In 1998, one in five people in the region lived below the poverty line (US$2.15 per day).
• Inequality: Inequality increased in CIS countries, with Gini coefficients nearly doubling in some cases.

Policy Lessons

• Discipline and encouragement must be combined to ensure sustainable growth.
• Encouragement includes policies that support new enterprise creation and private sector development.
• Discipline involves restructuring and closing unviable enterprises, imposing hard budget constraints, and reducing inefficiencies.
• Privatization is important, but the method (traditional vs. rapid) and timing matter.
• Social policies should protect the most vulnerable groups, including children and the poor, while promoting human capital development.

Institutional and Legal Reforms

• Legal institutions must be developed to ensure fair competition and protection of property rights.
• Corruption and rent-seeking have hindered investment and growth in CIS countries.
• Institutional capacity is essential for transparent privatization and preventing asset stripping.
• Accounting, auditing, and disclosure standards are important to ensure market efficiency and transparency.

Political Systems and Reforms

• Competitive democracies have higher political contestability and government turnover, which support market-oriented reforms.
• Concentrated political regimes and noncompetitive systems face greater challenges in implementing market reforms.
• Political economy considerations must be taken into account when designing economic policies, as they can influence reform momentum and public support.

Future Directions

• Continued growth is essential for income generation and public good provision.
• Second-generation reforms are needed to address quasi-fiscal liabilities, labor market reforms, and financial market deepening.
• Social safety nets must be fiscally sustainable and targeted to the most vulnerable.
• Policy advice should reflect new conditions and experiences from the first decade of transition.

Conclusion

The transition from a centrally planned to a market economy has been uneven across Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. While some countries, particularly in the CSB, have achieved sustained growth, others in the CIS have struggled with inequality, corruption, and inefficient state management. The report emphasizes the importance of discipline and encouragement in economic reforms, legal and institutional development, and social policies to ensure equitable growth and market efficiency. It also highlights the political economy challenges that must be addressed to support long-term reform success.

Key Questions Addressed

• Why has the growth of some transition economies been better than others?
• Can discipline and encouragement be balanced?
• What role do initial conditions and external shocks play in recovery and growth?
• How can political support for reform be built in CIS countries?
• What policy adjustments are needed to reflect new conditions?

Annexes and Boxes

• Annex 1: Details the reform agenda of discipline and encouragement.
• Annex 2.1 and 2.2: Presents empirical evidence on growth in transition economies.
• Annex 4.1: Discusses the role of SMEs in economic growth.
• Box 1: Highlights the increase in inequality in CIS countries, with Gini coefficients nearly doubling in some cases.
• Figure A: Illustrates income inequality changes in selected transition economies.

References

• World Bank (2000b, c)
• IMF and others (1991)
• Tarr (1994)
• Balcerowicz (1995)
• Kornai and Nagy (2001)

This report serves as a comprehensive analysis of the transition process, offering policy insights and lessons for future economic development in the region.