兰德-全球大移民：本世纪最大的挑战和机遇之一（英文）-2020.9-12页_3mb

MASS MIGRATION: RAND'S RESEARCH AND POLICY INSIGHTS

Core Content

The RAND Corporation is addressing the growing challenge and opportunity of mass migration through interdisciplinary research, focusing on three key areas: migration due to conflict, migration due to climate change or natural hazards, and management of migration across the U.S. southern border. These areas are critical for understanding the complexities of migration and formulating effective policies that support both migrants and host communities.

Main Areas of Focus

1. Migration Resulting from Conflict

• Current Situation: Over 70 million people are displaced globally due to conflict and political instability, a record high since World War II.
• Key Challenges: Long-term displacement, integration of refugees, rebuilding of home countries, and managing public services and security in host countries.
• RAND's Work:
  • Evaluates refugee education programs in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey.
  • Explores economic opportunities for Syrian refugees in the Middle East.
  • Analyzes the impact of refugee presence on national security and stability.
  • Investigates the risk of refugee radicalization and ways to mitigate it.

2. Migration Resulting from Climate Change or Natural Hazards

• Current Situation: Climate-related disasters are displacing millions of people annually, with projections indicating up to 300 million climate migrants by 2050.
• Key Challenges: Environmental vulnerability, lack of legal protections for climate migrants, and the need for adaptive strategies in affected regions.
• RAND's Work:
  • Assesses the impact of Hurricane Katrina and Maria on displaced populations.
  • Studies the effects of climate change on migration in the Middle East and North Africa.
  • Develops tools for climate migration planning and resilience building.
  • Analyzes the fiscal and economic impacts of immigration, including the role of education and employment.

3. Management of Migration Across the U.S. Southern Border

• Current Situation: U.S. immigration policy is highly polarized, with debates on border security, asylum, and the treatment of undocumented immigrants.
• Key Challenges: Balancing security with legal migration, managing border enforcement, and addressing the needs of both legal and unauthorized migrants.
• RAND's Work:
  • Models the impact of border enforcement measures.
  • Evaluates the effects of immigration laws on health outcomes.
  • Proposes alternative immigration policies, such as reforms to the "Cancellation of Removal" statute.
  • Analyzes the integration of immigrants into U.S. education and labor markets.
  • Studies border management practices in other countries to inform U.S. policy.

Key Recommendations

• Long-term Planning: Nations should engage in long-term development planning, including education and infrastructure, to prepare for displaced populations.
• Economic Integration: Host countries should enhance job-matching, training, and placement to support both refugees and local communities.
• Infrastructure Investment: Global investment is necessary to support public services in developing countries that host large numbers of refugees.
• Social Inclusion: Providing dignified living conditions and opportunities for refugees can reduce the risk of radicalization.
• Technology Use: Leverage technology to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of migration management and support displaced populations.

RAND Research Insights

How Can Nations Prepare for Newcomers?

• Displacement can last decades; long-term development planning is essential.
• Humanitarian response must be integrated with sustainable development.

How Can Host Nations Prepare Economically?

• Refugees can contribute to host economies through employment.
• Enhancing job-matching and training systems is crucial.

How Can Host Nations Prepare Their Infrastructure?

• Most refugees are hosted in developing countries.
• Global investment is needed to support public service delivery.

How Can Host Nations Prepare Socially?

• Inconsistent treatment of refugees can lead to radicalization.
• Supporting dignified living and opportunities reduces social tensions.

Big Questions for the Future

• How can population movements be better measured, explained, and forecasted?
• What are the key factors driving migration, including climate, security, and economic conditions?
• How can the needs of migrants, their host communities, and those left behind be met effectively?
• How can border security be improved without hindering legal trade and travel?

Conclusion

RAND's research underscores the need for holistic, evidence-based approaches to migration management. By addressing the economic, social, and environmental impacts of migration, RAND aims to support policy development that promotes safety, well-being, and resilience in both origin and destination communities.