联合国贸易发展委员会-全球贸易更新（2025年7月）_全球贸易面临政策变化和地缘经济风险（英）-2025_23页_2mb

Global Trade Analysis Summary (Q1 2025)

Trade Growth Resumes, But at a Slower Pace

• Global trade (goods & services) showed positive growth in Q1 2025: +0.9% quarter-on-quarter (+1.5% including seasonally adjusted seasonal factors); a trailing four-quarter annual growth rate of 3.5%.
• Services recorded notably higher annual growth (around 9%), outpacing goods recently.
• UNCTAD nowcasts Q2 2025 growth at about +2% for both goods (+1% pre-adjustment) and services.

Uneven Global Performance in Trade

• Developed Economies: Outperformed in both imports and exports (driven partly by U.S. tariff preparation). Led in imports (14% qoq US goods) and exports (3% annual for EU services).
• Developing Economies: Showed weaker performance in imports (-2% qoq average mixed), though exports were strong (+6% annual) relative to their own averages. However, Q1 2025 saw contraction in South-South trade overall.
• The U.S. saw a significant surge in imports (+14% qoq) ahead of tariff measures, while its services deficit widened to near 1% qoq.

Global Trade Balances Show Widening Disparities

• Major deficits were recorded by the U.S. (though larger than before in current period), India, Japan, and the U.K., with the U.S. experiencing the steepest increase.
• China maintained a large trade surplus, with the EU's surplus also increasing.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Trade Policies Persist

• High uncertainty in U.S. trade policy, including ongoing tariffs with China and others, steel/aluminum duties, and potential new broad-based tariffs or targeted product duties.
• Retaliatory trade actions could escalate tensions, and domestic subsidies/support for national industries could restrict international trade, especially in high-tech sectors.
• Ripple effects along global value chains could disrupt interconnected markets and supply networks due to targeted policy changes.

Regional Variations

• Africa saw strong export growth (up to +16% annual) and intra-regional trade.
• Asia-Pacific, Central Asia regions saw declining merchandise exports.
• Europe drove export growth via extra-regional trade, North America via intra-regional.

China's Role Remains Significant Despite Mixed Results

• China led regional growth in both goods and services trade.
• Intra-regional trade (especially with Africa) supports Chinese exports.
• Weakness in certain sectors and China's overall trade balance contours are discussed.

Competition in the Digital Economy Intensifies Globally

• Tech giants dominate digital markets and set tall barriers to entry with their data control and platforms.
• Regulatory actions against big tech include competition law enforcement (e.g., fines for Google, Apple, Meta; breakup restrictions) and ex-ante regulations in the EU and beyond (DMA).
• Enforcement continues but faces complexities, rollout differences globally, and trade policy implications (e.g., U.S. linking foreign regulations to trade retaliation threat).

Summary

Global trade remained positive in Q1 2025 despite ongoing policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and challenging economic conditions. While developing countries have shown resilience, developed nations gained market share driven by the U.S. and the EU. Trade imbalances widened, and global economic slowdown remains a key risk. The intensification of antitrust enforcement is crucial to counter consolidation and ensure a fair digital environment for development. Trade policy, especially in the U.S., creates risks to further trade conflicts and supply chains.