2019年投资管理展望（英文版）_24页_2mb

2019 Investment Management Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2019 Investment Management Outlook highlights a period of rapid change and increased competition in the industry, driven by evolving investor preferences, regulatory shifts, and technological advancements. Investment managers are facing challenges in maintaining profitability and growth, especially in a market where passive funds are gaining traction and active managers are struggling to demonstrate alpha generation. The outlook emphasizes the importance of strategic investments, operational efficiency, and enhanced customer experience to remain competitive.

Main Views

1. Market Dynamics and Growth Opportunities

• The nine-year bull market has led to increased market valuations, raising concerns about market volatility and correction risks.
• Passive funds continue to attract significant inflows, with zero-cost ETFs potentially accelerating their growth.
• Private equity (PE) has seen strong performance, leading to record dry powder and capital inflows.
• China is emerging as a key growth market due to relaxed foreign ownership rules and a shift from savings to investing.
• ESG investing is gaining momentum, driven by Millennial awareness, pension fund interest, and regulatory support.

2. Customer Preferences Diverge

• Younger investors (Millennials and Gen Z) prefer digital engagement, low minimum investments, and 24/7 access to advice.
• Institutional investors demand transparency, tailored solutions, and global products.
• Shelf-space rationalization is becoming a key tactic for distributors, with many dropping funds to focus on high-performing ones.

3. Regulatory Fragmentation and Compliance Challenges

• Regulatory changes are occurring in multiple regions, increasing the complexity of compliance for global firms.
• Technology adoption can aid compliance but also introduces new risks, especially under GDPR.
• Brexit is expected to lead to stricter regulations in the UK, prompting firms to reconsider operating locations.
• Regulators in China are beginning to mandate oversight of robo-advisers, with other regions likely to follow.

4. Operational Efficiencies and Technological Innovation

• Cloud migration is a cost-effective way to enhance agility and reduce fixed costs.
• Advanced analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) are being used to improve decision-making, risk management, and customer engagement.
• AI applications include natural language processing (NLP) for investment insights, machine learning (ML) for customized advice, and predictive analytics for portfolio performance.
• Alternative data is becoming a key tool for investment differentiation, with usage expected to grow across long-only and alternative managers.

5. Pricing Models and Competitive Strategies

• Fulcrum fees are gaining traction, linking fees to performance and offering incentives for active managers.
• Passive funds are seeing a new pricing model where some are offering zero-fee options, shifting revenue focus to securities lending, order-flow payments, and shareholder servicing.
• Strategic acquisitions and minority stakes are common strategies for expanding capabilities and entering new markets.

Key Information

Growth Strategies

• Organic growth through innovation and customer engagement is critical for small and mid-sized firms.
• Inorganic growth via acquisitions and partnerships is a common approach, especially in the ETF and private equity sectors.
• Market expansion into Asia-Pacific is a priority, with China being a key focus due to regulatory changes and increased investor interest.

Operational Efficiency

• Cloud migration and advanced analytics are key tools for cost reduction and operational scalability.
• Technology investment is essential for differentiating from competitors and improving decision-making.
• Compliance processes must be flexible and robust, especially with new regulations and model risk becoming a focus.

Customer Experience

• Digital engagement is becoming the norm, with mobile and online platforms being preferred by younger investors.
• Personalized investment advice and transparent products are increasingly important for customer retention.
• Robo-advisers and AI-driven tools are reshaping how investment insights and customer support are delivered.

Predictions for 2019

• Proprietary indexing will increase, allowing lower expense ratios for index funds.
• Fulcrum fee models will become more common, especially for active funds.
• Alternative data will be widely used by both long-only and alternative managers.
• Shelf-space rationalization will continue, with distributors focusing on high-performing funds.
• Regulatory changes will drive operational and compliance adaptations.
• Brexit will influence operating locations and regulatory alignment.

Conclusion

Investment management leaders are advised to focus on three core questions:

1. How can we grow our business?
2. What are the possibilities to run our operations more efficiently?
3. How can we deliver the next level of customer experience?

The answers to these questions will be organization-specific and evolving, requiring bold strategic investments and effective execution. The outlook emphasizes the need for technology adoption, regulatory agility, and customer-centric innovation to thrive in a complex and competitive landscape.