2025-06-10-Jefferies-帝亚吉欧（DGE）_印度板球队股权的潜在处置_7页_275kb

Diageo Equity Research Summary

Overview

• Company: Diageo (DGE LN)
• Sector: Beverages
• Rating: BUY
• Current Price: 1,973.50p
• Price Target (12M): 2,500.00p (+27%)
• Consensus F26 EPS: $164.3c (vs average $170.7c)
• Calculated F26 PE (2026): 15.8x

Key Recommendations & Analysis

RCB (Royal Challengers Bangalore) Sale

• Scenario: Media speculation suggests Diageo is considering selling a 100% stake in the RCB IPL cricket franchise. Potential valuation ~$2bn.
• Strategic Consistency: Aligns with Diageo's recent strategy under the new CFO to focus on growth, profit, cash, and selling substantial non-core assets.
• Financial Impact:
  • A sale for $2bn would add ~$1.1bn (c.0.1x ND/EBITDA) value.
  • F26 ND/EBITDA (trailing) falls from 3.2x to 3.1x.
  • Slight, c.1% accretive to earnings post-tax due to lower finance costs.
• Brand Risk: Advertising alcohol is restricted in India; RCB's use in sports requires caution regarding indirect promotion risk.

Investment Case & Outlook

• Focus: Shift from portfolio trimming to disposing substantial underlying businesses.
• Recovery: Views are cyclical; recovery requires time to materialize via improving operating leverage, free cash flow, and returns (target 2.5x-3.0x ND/EBITDA by F28).
• Financial Projections: Conservative outlook due to tariffs, FX, and slower growth; modeled lower revenue (+1.8% F26 vs +3.6% consensus) and EBIT (+2.3% vs +4.8%), impacting past negative sentiment in share price.
• Volatility: Anticipated volatility as consensus expectations are revised downwards.

Analysts

• Edward Mundy (ACA), Andrei Andon-Ionita (CFA)

Market Context

• Higher price target reflects belief in eventual re-rating as recovery materializes and returns improve.

Note: This summary captures the core analysis points relevant to investment decision-making (rating, price target, key risks/risks factors, financial impact, outlook).