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Equity Research Summary: European Chemicals - June 2025

June 13, 2025 research highlights key themes in the European chemicals sector, including regulatory changes, demand uncertainty, and valuation opportunities.

Key Events and Highlights

• Upcoming Events: Fireside chats with Evonik CFO and JMAT CEO, plus a global webinar on June 16-23.
• Recent Research:
  • Brenntag: Hosted site visit; reiterated lower EBITDA guidance (€1.05B) amid tariff pressures.
  • AkzoNobel: Paint price monitoring shows price vs. raw material support in FY25 earnings.
  • Chemical Spreads: Product spreads improved +6% (excluding specific companies), with cracker spreads driven by input costs; volume uncertainty persists.
  • OCI: Secured regulatory approval for methanol sale to Methanex, expected to unlock a $1B dividend and 30% buyback.
  • Lick Paints: Perspectives on UK paint markets, emphasizing non-traditional strategies like digital marketing to gain share.

Ratings and Company Overview

• Buy Recommendations: Air Liquide (€204 target), OCI (€8, 3% upside), Kerry Group (€97 buy), JohnsonMatthey (GBp2,200, 27% upside).
• Hold Recommendations: AkzoNobel (€58), BASF (€47), Bayer (€22), Brenntag (€63), DSM-Firmenich.
• Underperform: K+S, Evonik, OCI (post-acquisition).
• Valuation Movers: Higher EV/EBITDA ratios and weaker metrics for cyclical firms like Covestro and Lanxess offset by better fundamentals in defensives like Air Liquide and Givaudan.

Key Stock Calls

• Buy Underperform: Aggressively recommends companies with operational strengths, e.g., Air Liquide (pricing power, margin expansion), Kerry (volume recovery), Clariant (unique value propositions). Discording factors: Solvy overearning risk, Givaudan's lower growth potential.
• Hold: Maintained positions like AkzoNobel, where portfolio shifts and medium-term potential exist.
• Underperform: Targets include K+S (high financial leverage) and Yara (structural asset risks).

Valuation and Sector Context

• Relative Valuation: European chemicals trade at lower EV/EBITDA than US peers. Defensives (e.g., Air Liquide) are higher valued than cyclicals, reflecting risk premiums.
• Trends: Exhibit data shows chemicals valuations lower than historical averages vs. STOXX; selective buy-ups dominate, e.g., Clean Air business for Croda fueling growth.

Risks and Opportunities

• Main Risks: Tariffs overhanging demand, tariff uncertainties; high capital expenditures for decarbonization; inadequate volume responses to mild cycles.
• Positive Impulses: Structural tailwinds in bioenergy, portfolio optimizations (e.g., OCI sale), and supply constraints on Chinese poly products benefiting Alumina non-Chinese suppliers.

The report underscores Europe's chemicals dynamics, with analysts favoring companies with pricing power, innovative margins, and strategic portfolio refinements amid tariff and economic headwinds. Disclosure risks from conflicts of interest and regulatory status are noted.