2021-12-20-牛津经济研究院-Asia_Pacific_Cities_We_forecast_further_recovery_in_2022,_but_clearly_with_some_big_risks_7页_274kb

Asia Pacific Cities Outlook Summary (December 2021)

Overview

We forecast 4.5% average GDP growth for Asia's top 25 cities in 2022, slightly lower than the 4.1% projected for 2022-26. However, significant economic uncertainty persists, particularly with the Omicron variant affecting global recovery.

Key Findings

Fastest Growing Cities in 2022

• Ho Chi Minh City: 9.2% GDP growth driven by improved Covid-19 response.
• Indian Cities: Bengaluru (9.4%), Delhi (8.4%), Mumbai (7.6%). Labour richness supports growth despite challenges.
• Other fast-growing cities include Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Manila, and Jakarta, many with growth rates close to their 5-year averages.

Supply Chain Challenges in Manufacturing Hubs (especially China)

• Chinese cities face supply chain disruptions affecting their GDP performance.
• Shenzhen: High manufacturing intensity and a young demographic profile (46% aged 20-34) pose challenges for transitioning to services. Its growth may slow without a skilled workforce.

High-Income Households and Office Employment

• Hong Kong: Remains a key consumer market but faces stagnant GDP growth (2.4% annually). Office employment growth is modest compared to cities like Singapore, Sydney, and Melbourne.
• Top Office Employment Growth: Singapore, Sydney, and Melbourne are projected to see significant increases.

Employment Projections

• Most cities are expected to see employment levels recover to or above pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
• Exceptions include some cities like Hong Kong, which trails behind.

Notable Exceptions: Melbourne

• Melbourne shows strong projected growth (5.4% in 2022), benefiting from recovery after tough 2020-2021. However, surging Covid-19 cases in late 2021 increase uncertainty.

Conclusion

Strong recovery is expected, but risks remain due to the Omicron variant, supply chain issues, and evolving health policies in key cities like India and China.