2011年-世界发展银行全球_Russia_-_Public_Expenditure_Review_129页_7mb

Russia Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Russia Public Expenditure Review (PER), provides an in-depth analysis of Russia's public expenditure management and fiscal discipline, with a specific focus on two critical areas: transport infrastructure (particularly roads and railways) and public employment. The review is conducted by the World Bank and aims to support the Ministry of Finance (MOF) in identifying efficiency gains and opportunities for fiscal savings.

Main Objectives

• To assess the efficiency of public expenditures in key sectors.
• To identify fiscal space for long-term growth and diversification.
• To support the MOF in improving public financial management and budgeting practices.

Key Fiscal Parameters

• The global economic crisis had a significant impact on Russia, prompting countercyclical fiscal measures that amounted to 6.7% of GDP in 2008 and 2009.
• Russia's fiscal deficit was expected to decrease from 4.1% of GDP in 2010 to 2.9% in 2013 under Plan A.
• However, the report highlights the need for a more ambitious fiscal adjustment due to the uncertain international environment and oil price outlook.

Fiscal Challenges and Recommendations

A. Aggregate Fiscal Discipline and Public Expenditure Management

• Fiscal Pressures: The decline in oil and gas and non-tax revenues creates additional fiscal pressures.
• Reforms Needed: The budget requires deeper reforms and more resources to support modernization and infrastructure upgrades.
• Recommendations:
  • Broaden the non-oil revenue base.
  • Reduce nonpriority expenditures.
  • Implement performance-based budgeting and improve expenditure monitoring systems.
  • Increase the targeting of social assistance programs.
  • Improve the sustainability of the pension system.
  • Support structural reforms in the education and health sectors.

B. Transport Infrastructure: Roads and Railways

• Road Infrastructure:

  • Only slightly over one-third of Russia's 49,995 km of federal roads meet standard requirements.
  • The report estimates a significant financing gap of 1.1% of GDP for road maintenance and rehabilitation, with the largest gap in the regional road network.
  • Under Plan B, the financing gap could be closed by increasing fuel taxes and vehicle license fees, which are underutilized in Russia.
  • The report suggests that a second-generation road fund, similar to those in other countries, could help ensure the affordability and sustainability of road maintenance programs.
  • A well-designed fuel surcharge could generate enough revenue to finance maintenance but not expansion, which would require other funding sources.

• Rail Infrastructure:

  • The rail network is underdeveloped and inefficient compared to international standards.
  • Russia's rail density is lower than that of many developed economies.
  • The report emphasizes the need for increased capital investments in railways to support long-term growth and improve connectivity.
  • Recommendations include improving the efficiency of railway operations, increasing the use of public-private partnerships (PPPs), and enhancing the performance-based contract (PBC) system.

C. Public Employment and the Wage Bill

• Employment Trends:

  • Public employment has grown significantly, but the wage bill is a major component of public expenditure.
  • The report highlights the need for a transition toward performance-based personnel management.
  • It notes that public sector wages are often higher than those in the private sector, which can be a burden on the budget.

• Recommendations:

  • Implement a performance-related pay (PRP) system to improve efficiency.
  • Restructure the wage system to ensure fiscal sustainability.
  • Improve the targeting of public employment and reduce inefficiencies.
  • Use incentives and rewards to motivate public sector employees.

Key Information

• Fiscal Space: Under Plan A, the government expects to create 5.1 percentage points of fiscal space over three years. Under Plan B, the cumulative increase in fiscal space would be over 9 percentage points of GDP.
• Efficiency Gains: The report estimates that improved public expenditure management and better allocation of funds could yield additional savings of over 2 percentage points of GDP.
• International Comparisons: Russia's road quality ranks 125th out of 139 countries, while Finland's ranks 13th. This indicates the importance of effective maintenance and management.
• Institutional Challenges: The report highlights the need for better institutional frameworks in the transport and public employment sectors, including improved monitoring, transparency, and performance-based contracting.

Conclusion

The PER underscores the importance of improving fiscal discipline, enhancing the efficiency of public expenditures, and creating a sustainable fiscal environment for long-term growth and diversification. It emphasizes the need for structural reforms in both the transport and public employment sectors, as well as the importance of utilizing alternative revenue sources and improving the targeting of public spending. The report serves as a comprehensive guide for the MOF to refine its fiscal strategy and ensure that public resources are used effectively to support economic development.