2001年-世界发展银行全球_Africa_Gas_Initiative___Volume_6_Gabon_34页_1mb

Summary of the Africa Gas Initiative (AGI) Study for Gabon

Core Content

The Africa Gas Initiative (AGI) Study, conducted by the Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP), focuses on identifying opportunities to reduce gas flaring and improve the utilization of natural gas in Gabon's industrial and commercial sectors. The study highlights the potential for gas to support power generation and industrial development, particularly in the context of Gabon's energy sector, which is heavily reliant on oil revenues and has limited natural gas infrastructure.

Main Points

1. Gabon's Energy Sector Overview

• Gabon has a population of about 1.2 million people over 267,000 km², making it one of the least densely populated countries in Central Africa.
• The oil industry is the most important sector, contributing about 40% of GDP, 60% of government revenue, and 80% of total export revenues.
• Proved oil reserves nearly doubled from 1.3 billion barrels in 1996 to 2.5 billion barrels in 1998, with production at 362,000 bpd (18 million tons per year).
• The RTP (Reserves to Production) ratio is estimated at 19 years, but long-term decline is expected due to the depletion of the largest oil field, Rabi-Kounga.

2. Refining and Downstream Activities

• Gabon has a small refinery in Port Gentil, operated by Sogara, which has a capacity of 21,000 bpd but only operates at 80% of its capacity.
• The refinery serves the local market and exports surplus, mainly fuel oil and naphtha.
• Gabon imports about 210,000 tpy of oil products, mainly gas oil and jet fuel, to meet domestic demand.
• The coverage ratio for some products, such as jet fuel and gas oil, is only 54%, and is expected to decline further with increasing transportation demand.

3. Natural Gas Utilization

• Natural gas is currently used in limited quantities for power generation and in the industrial sector, primarily in Port Gentil.
• The gas supply comes from offshore production sites via a sealine to Port Gentil, with no pipeline beyond that.
• Major consumers include the local thermal plant and industries in the industrial area of Port Gentil.

4. Options for Improving Power Generation

The AGI Study outlines several options for improving power generation in Gabon, with a focus on the economic feasibility and cost implications of each.

Option A: Hydro Scheme in Central Region

• Additional hydro capacity is developed on the Mbei River.
• Capital costs: USD 340 million for Ngouimendjim, USD 180 million for lower Kinguélé.
• Operating costs: USD 0.4 million/year for Owendo, 0.2% of capital cost for new hydro stations.
• Total discounted cost: USD 287 million for the Central region, USD 106 million for the Coastal region, totaling USD 393 million.
• This option is considered the reference case but is the most expensive.

Option B: Owendo Gas Turbines Running on Non-associated Gas

• Owendo gas turbines are converted to run on natural gas from small fields near Port Gentil (Mbilagone and Ozoumbele).
• Total cost: USD 178 million, including USD 55 million for gas infrastructure.
• This is the lowest-cost option, with significant savings due to lower investment and modular gas turbine operation.

Option C: Owendo Gas Turbines Running on Associated Gas

• Owendo gas turbines are fired with associated gas from offshore oil fields.
• Pipeline cost: USD 34.3 million from Port Gentil to Owendo.
• Total cost: USD 218 million, which is USD 40 million higher than Option B due to higher gas purchase prices.

Option D: Additional Power Generation in Port Gentil with Interconnection to Libreville

• Additional power is generated in Port Gentil using associated gas, and transmitted to Libreville.
• Interconnection line: 303 km of 225 kV HV line, costing USD 48 million.
• Total discounted cost: USD 252 million, USD 74 million more than Option B.

Variant D1: Replacement of Ngouimendjim Hydro Station with Diesel Units

• Ngouimendjim hydro station is replaced by diesel units near Libreville.
• Total cost: USD 231 million, USD 13 million more than Option C.

Option E: Incremental Demand Met by Diesel Units

• Seven diesel units of 20 MW each are added incrementally to meet growing demand.
• Total discounted cost: USD 132 million for the Central network.
• No additional gas or infrastructure costs; total cost: USD 234 million.
• This option is close in cost to Option D and well below Option A.

Key Information

• Gabon is highly sensitive to international oil prices due to its reliance on oil revenues.
• The AGI Study recommends exploring gas utilization for both power generation and industrial purposes.
• The use of natural gas is considered more economically viable than oil-based power generation in some scenarios.
• Gas infrastructure development, including pipelines and distribution networks, is a key factor in the cost analysis.
• The study emphasizes the importance of interconnection between regions to optimize gas and power use.
• The coverage ratio for certain oil products is low, indicating a need for increased domestic production or imports.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• The AGI Study concludes that Option B is the most cost-effective for power generation in Gabon, primarily due to the lower investment cost and the modularity of gas turbines.
• It recommends that a pre-feasibility study of industrial networks be conducted in the main cities of Gabon, with a focus on the potential for gas to support power generation.
• The development of gas-based power generation is seen as a viable alternative to hydro and diesel-based systems, especially in the context of decreasing oil reserves and increasing demand.
• Further research and investment in gas infrastructure and industrial networks are needed to fully realize the benefits of natural gas in Gabon's energy mix.