2018年-世界发展银行全球_Iraq_Economic_Monitor_Spring_2018___From_War_to_Reconstruction_and_Economic_Recovery_60页_1mb

报告摘要

Iraq Economic Monitor Summary

Core Content

The Iraq Economic Monitor (Spring 2018) provides an overview of Iraq's economic developments and policy changes, focusing on energy subsidy reform and the broader context of reconstruction and recovery following the war against ISIS. It outlines the macroeconomic situation, fiscal and external balances, and the impact of conflict and policy decisions on the country's economic growth and stability.

Main Points

1. Economic Recovery and Reconstruction

Iraq has been slowly recovering from the economic strains of the last three years, with the liberation of all territories from ISIS in December 2017 marking a key milestone.
The Government of Iraq (Gol) has launched a comprehensive reconstruction and development plan linked to stabilization and long-term vision, emphasizing governance, reconciliation, infrastructure, and economic development.
The Kuwait donor conference in February 2018 identified short- and medium-term financing needs for reconstruction, with a total estimated need of US$88.2 billion.
Non-oil GDP growth improved in 2017 to 4.4 percent, driven by construction and services, and private consumption and investment.
Overall GDP growth remained positive in 2017 due to higher oil prices and increased oil production, despite a 3.5 percent decline in oil production.

2. Economic and Fiscal Situation

The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.2 percent of GDP in 2017, supported by higher oil prices and expenditure control measures.
The cumulative real loss to non-oil GDP since 2014 was ID124 trillion (US$107 billion), equivalent to 72 percent of 2013 GDP and 142 percent of 2013 non-oil GDP.
Public debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 58 percent in 2017, due to fiscal consolidation and higher oil prices.
Current account balance returned to a surplus of 0.7 percent of GDP in 2017, while foreign reserves declined from US$77.8 billion in 2013 to US$48.1 billion in 2017.

3. Challenges and Risks

Political and social tensions remain high, especially between Baghdad and Erbil, and could delay reconstruction and reform efforts.
Security concerns and corruption are major downside risks to economic recovery and policy implementation.
Oil price volatility and uncertainty in the external environment pose a risk to fiscal sustainability and growth potential.
Failure to implement structural reforms could limit non-oil growth, which is expected to be short-lived without improvements in public finance management, business environment, and service delivery.

4. Energy Subsidy Reform

The Special Focus on energy subsidy reform highlights the economic rationale for reducing subsidies to improve fiscal sustainability and resource allocation.
Subsidy reform is expected to improve efficiency in the energy sector and support long-term growth.
Electricity transmission and distribution losses remain a key issue, with the introduction of a proxy means testing (PMT) system to improve social spending targeting.
The Gol has committed to unifying social protection schemes and reducing the wage bill, which remains the largest and fastest-growing expense in the government budget.

5. Poverty and Social Impact

Poverty rates rose sharply, increasing from 18.9 percent in 2012 to 41.2 percent in ISIS-occupied areas.
Women and youth were particularly affected by increased insecurity, which limited their access to education, health, and employment.
Public Distribution System (PDS) remains the primary safety net for the poor, but is severely inefficient.
Reconstruction efforts are expected to boost non-oil growth, but without structural reforms, the benefits may be short-lived.

Key Information

Oil prices increased in 2017, contributing to higher oil revenue and improved fiscal balances.
Non-oil investment was under-executed, and foreign direct investment (FDI) declined due to insecurity and poor business environment.
Reconstruction and recovery are critical to sustaining growth and reducing poverty, but require funding and political consensus.
Iraq's growth outlook is positive but dependent on security improvements, fiscal adjustment, and reconstruction progress.
Political risks, including delayed elections and conflict with the KRG, could hinder reform efforts and donor support.

Conclusion

Iraq's economic recovery is gradual and fragile, with improved security and oil prices playing a key role in stabilizing the fiscal and external balances. However, structural reforms and effective implementation of the reconstruction plan are essential for sustained growth and reducing poverty. The Gol has taken positive steps in reform and fiscal management, but ongoing political and social challenges remain a major risk to the economic outlook.