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The Future of Nuclear Weapons in NATO: Summary

Core Content

This document, authored by Ian Anthony and Johnny Janssen in April 2010, discusses the evolving role of nuclear weapons within NATO's security policy. It highlights the increasing debate among European NATO members about the necessity and role of nuclear weapons in a changing international landscape. The report emphasizes the need for a reassessment of NATO's nuclear posture in light of new security challenges and the broader context of nuclear disarmament and arms control.

Main Points

• NATO's Nuclear Policy Debate: In 2010, five NATO Allies called for a discussion on the role of nuclear weapons in the Alliance's security strategy, indicating a growing interest in reducing their importance. However, nuclear weapons are still seen as part of a broader mix of capabilities to ensure security in a fragmented and uncertain international environment.

• Strategic Concept Review: NATO is in the process of updating its Strategic Concept, originally from 1999, to reflect the new security environment of the 21st century. This review is expected to shape future nuclear policies and address the evolving nature of threats.

• Credibility and Flexibility of Nuclear Forces: The credibility and flexibility of NATO's current nuclear forces are under question due to the aging of delivery systems, the retirement of many nuclear weapons, and the changing strategic landscape. These factors challenge the rationale for maintaining US nuclear weapons in Europe, which is traditionally based on Alliance solidarity and trans-Atlantic reassurance.

• NATO's Nuclear Posture: NATO remains committed to maintaining nuclear forces in Europe, including sub-strategic forces such as dual-capable aircraft and a small number of UK Trident warheads. These forces are considered essential for deterrence, although their relevance is being re-evaluated.

• Historical Context and Changes: After the Cold War, NATO reduced its nuclear arsenal significantly, moving away from forward defense and toward a more flexible response. This shift reflects a broader adaptation to new security realities.

• Russia's Nuclear Strategy: Russia continues to maintain a strong nuclear arsenal and has expressed a commitment to modernization. However, its strategic focus is more on preserving its deterrent capability than on expanding it. The likelihood of Russia using nuclear forces to intimidate through arms racing is considered low.

• Proliferation Concerns: The report notes the growing number of nuclear-armed states and the proliferation of nuclear technology and materials. It highlights the risk of non-state actors acquiring fissile materials and the potential for biological and radiological threats.

• Mass Impact Terrorism: The threat of mass-impact terrorism, including the use of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) agents, has expanded the scope of proliferation concerns. The risk of such attacks is taken seriously, especially in light of recent global events.

• Need for a New Security Framework: The document suggests that NATO and Russia should work together to develop a new international framework for nuclear security, including the potential for banning short-range nuclear forces. This would require addressing related issues such as strategic nuclear arsenals, advanced conventional weapons, and ballistic missile defenses.

Key Information

• NATO's Nuclear Forces: The current nuclear forces in Europe include a small number of US and UK-based weapons, primarily delivered by dual-capable aircraft. These are not typically deployed on surface vessels or attack submarines.

• Reduction in Nuclear Stockpile: Since the early 1970s, the number of sub-strategic nuclear weapons in Europe has decreased by approximately 90%. By 2003, only one type of weapon remained, and the current number is estimated to be between 150 and 200.

• Non-Proliferation Challenges: The report highlights the need to strengthen non-proliferation regimes, given the failure of existing treaties to prevent violations. It also notes the risk of proliferation due to inadequate material control and the emergence of new suppliers.

• Threat Assessment Trends: NATO's threat assessments now include a broader range of risks, such as cyber attacks, social and cultural disruptions, and economic pressures. These are seen as more immediate threats than traditional nuclear confrontations.

• Role of Nuclear Weapons in Deterrence: There is a growing debate about whether nuclear weapons should be used to deter all forms of aggression or only nuclear attacks. This issue remains underexplored in Europe.

• Future of Nuclear Policy: The report suggests that the discussion of a new Strategic Concept offers an opportunity to explore a consensus on the future of NATO's nuclear policy, potentially linking it to improved relations with Russia.

Conclusion

The document outlines the complexities and challenges facing NATO's nuclear policy in the 21st century. It underscores the need for a more flexible and adaptable approach to nuclear deterrence, while also highlighting the importance of international cooperation in addressing proliferation and emerging security threats. The ultimate goal is to move towards a more stable and secure international environment through a reevaluation of nuclear roles and a renewed commitment to arms control and disarmament.