2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Demand_Projections_for_the_Fund39s_Concessional_Resources_15页_522kb

Summary of the Use of Gold Sale Profits—Initial Considerations and Options

Executive Summary

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the limited gold sale in December 2010, generating total profits of SDR 6.85 billion. This sale was intended to diversify the Fund's income sources and support concessional lending to low-income countries (LICs). The profits significantly exceeded earlier assumptions, mainly due to the substantial increase in gold prices. The paper outlines the possible uses of the remaining windfall profits, which amount to SDR 1.75 billion, and presents three main options for their allocation.

Core Content

The gold sale was part of a broader strategy to reform the Fund's financial structure and increase its capacity to assist LICs during crises. The profits from the sale are being managed under the Investment Account (IA), and the Board is considering how to best utilize them. The main options for use are:

• Boosting the PRGT's lending capacity
• Increasing precautionary balances
• Adding the profits to the gold endowment

The goal is to ensure a sustainable and diversified income base for the Fund while addressing the financial needs of LICs in future crises.

Main Options for the Use of the Windfall Profits

Option 1: Use Resources to Boost the PRGT's Capacity

• The 2009 LIC financing package increased the Fund's concessional lending capacity to SDR 17 billion through 2014, but this capacity is expected to fall sharply after 2014.
• The PRGT's self-sustained lending capacity would be insufficient to meet future demand, especially in periods of systemic crises.
• The remaining windfall profits could be used to increase the PRGT's capacity by over 50%, bringing it to SDR 1.1 billion annually.
• This would be achieved through an indirect transfer mechanism, where profits are distributed to members and returned as subsidy contributions.
• This option is considered beneficial to meet future financing needs and reduce the need for bilateral resources.

Option 2: Add the Windfall to Precautionary Balances

• The Fund's credit exposure has increased significantly due to crisis-related lending.
• Precautionary balances are essential for mitigating financial risks and protecting reserve assets.
• Current precautionary balances are at SDR 7.32 billion, well below the target of SDR 15 billion.
• Adding the windfall profits (SDR 1.75 billion) to precautionary balances would increase their level by 24% to SDR 9.07 billion.
• This would also accelerate the timeline for reaching the target levels, helping to manage risks in the current uncertain environment.

Option 3: Add the Windfall to the Gold Endowment

• The original new income model proposed that all gold sale profits be transferred to the endowment.
• The profits have already been moved to the IA, and the option to add them to the endowment is consistent with this model.
• Adding the remaining windfall to the endowment would increase its size by about 40%, from SDR 4.4 billion to SDR 6.1 billion.
• This would provide a larger buffer for the Fund's steady-state income, which is currently projected to be modest.
• The endowment's performance is sensitive to assumptions about interest rates, exchange rates, and investment returns.
• No new Board decision is required for this option, as it aligns with ongoing work on IA rules and regulations.

Combination of Options

• The three options are not mutually exclusive, and combinations could be considered.
• For instance, part of the windfall could be added to the endowment while the rest is used to increase the PRGT's capacity.
• A temporary use of profits for precautionary balances could be followed by a shift to boosting the PRGT once uncertainties abate.
• This approach could avoid the need for multiple distribution processes and reduce administrative burden.

Other Potential Uses

• Additional interest relief on PRGT credits could be considered, potentially extending the relief period to help LICs during the ongoing global recovery.
• The Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief (PCDR) Trust could be replenished with part of the windfall profits.
• These options would build on previous Board decisions and could be combined with the main options for a more comprehensive approach.

Key Information

• Total gold sale profits: SDR 6.85 billion
• Book value of gold sales: SDR 2.69 billion
• Windfall profits (above SDR 850 per ounce): SDR 1.75 billion
• Minimum gold endowment size (based on SDR 850 per ounce): SDR 4.4 billion
• Projected PRGT capacity with windfall addition: SDR 1.1 billion annually
• Precautionary balance increase: 24% to SDR 9.07 billion
• Endowment size after windfall addition: SDR 6.1 billion
• SDR equivalent of the 2009 LIC financing package: SDR 11.3 billion
• US$ equivalent of the 2009 LIC financing package: SDR 17 billion
• Steady-state net operational income: SDR 1.1–1.9 billion annually through 2034
• Payout ratio for endowment: 3% (as per original model)
• Majority required for IA rules and regulations: 70% of total voting power

Conclusion and Issues for Discussion

• The Board needs to decide on the appropriate use of the remaining windfall profits.
• The options are not mutually exclusive, and a combination may be more effective.
• The use of the profits for the PRGT and precautionary balances could have significant benefits in the current context.
• The decision should consider the long-term sustainability of the Fund's income and the evolving needs of LICs.
• Staff will present specific proposals based on further discussions with Directors.