三星-亚洲-宏观策略-朝鲜导弹发射：应对最近的挑衅-20171129-4页_552kb

Samsung Strategy Spot Summary

Core Content

This document is a strategic analysis report from Samsung Securities, authored by SeungMin You, the Chief Strategist. It discusses the implications of North Korea's recent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test, the Hwasong-15, and provides an outlook on the geopolitical and financial market responses.

Key Events and Analysis

• North Korea Missile Test: On November 29, 2017, North Korea launched the Hwasong-15 ICBM from Pyeongsong, 30km north of Pyongyang. The missile traveled approximately 950km and reached an altitude of 4,500km, landing within Japan's exclusive economic zone.
• Missile Capabilities: The Hwasong-15 is reported to have advanced capabilities compared to previous models. It is capable of striking Washington, D.C. if launched at an ordinary angle and may carry multiple nuclear warheads, indicating a significant technological advancement.
• Reactions from Neighboring Countries:
  • South Korea: The Joint Chiefs of Staff dismissed the possibility of the missile carrying multiple warheads.
  • Japan: The Japanese government responded calmly and based on facts, in contrast to its more reactive stance in September.
  • United States: President Trump stated that the U.S. policy remains intact and that the country is closely monitoring the situation, suggesting a preference for economic sanctions over military action.
• Strategic Implications: The North Korean government claims to have completed its state nuclear force, which may be a strategic move to gain leverage in negotiations. It is expected that North Korea will attempt to ease economic sanctions through dialogue while avoiding further missile tests until it achieves re-entry capability for its ICBMs.

Outlook and Investment Strategy

• Low Probability of Extreme Events: Despite the missile test, the report suggests that the likelihood of an extreme event on the Korean peninsula remains low.
• Focus on Fundamentals: The report advises investors to focus on fundamentals rather than overreacting to geopolitical risks.
• Market Response: Financial markets are unlikely to react strongly to scattered provocations by North Korea, as neighboring countries and the U.S. are showing a more strategic and reasonable approach to resolving the nuclear issue.

Disclaimer and Legal Information

• Non-Recommendation: This report is not an investment recommendation and does not take into account individual client circumstances.
• Information Accuracy: The information is provided "AS IS" and is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
• Legal Restrictions: The report is subject to distribution restrictions in the U.S., UK, Singapore, and other jurisdictions. It is intended for specific categories of investors, such as institutional investors in Singapore, and is not available to the general public.
• Author Disclaimers: The analysts involved in the report do not have compensation tied to specific recommendations. The report is subject to change without notice, and Samsung Securities disclaims all liability for any losses or damages arising from its use.

Contact Information

• Samsung Securities Co., Ltd.
  Address: 10th Fl., Samsung Electronics Bldg., 11, 74-gil, Seochodae-ro, Seocho-gu, Seoul, Korea 06620
  Tel: 822 2020 8000
  Fax: 822 2020 7804
  Website: samsung POP.com

• International Offices:

  • London: Samsung Securities Europe Limited, 1st Floor, 30 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7PG UK
  • New York: Samsung Securities America Limited, 1330 Avenue of the Americas, 26th Floor, New York, NY 10019
  • Hong Kong: Samsung Securities Asia Limited, Suite 4511, Two International Finance Center, 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong
  • Beijing: Samsung Securities Beijing Representative Office, Rm. 910, The Exchange Building No 118 JianGuo Lu, Chao Yang District, Beijing, China
  • Tokyo: Samsung Securities Tokyo Representative Office, 106-8532 19F, Roppongi T-Cube 3-1-1, Roppongi Minato-ku Tokyo, Japan

Conclusion

The report highlights North Korea's continued advancements in its nuclear and missile capabilities, while noting the restrained responses from global powers and the financial markets. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamental investment principles rather than reacting to geopolitical tensions and suggests that North Korea may use its nuclear status as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.