2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Italy_Selected_Issues_80页_2mb

Italy: Competitiveness and Wage Bargaining Reform Summary

Core Content

This document, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July 2017, analyzes the competitiveness and wage bargaining challenges in Italy, focusing on the implications for economic growth and export performance. It also explores the broader context of fiscal reforms and their potential to support growth.

Main Issues and Key Findings

A. Competitiveness Challenge

• Growth and Export Performance: Italy's growth and export performance have lagged behind euro area peers over the past two decades.

  • Real GDP per capita, total factor productivity (TFP), and real exports have underperformed.
  • Real incomes per capita and TFP in Italy are below levels from more than two decades ago, while Germany has seen increases of about 20 and 12 percent respectively.

• Competitiveness Indicators: Standard price-based indicators (CPI, PPI) show Italy's real effective exchange rates (REERs) returning to pre-euro levels, suggesting no significant competitiveness loss.

  • However, unit labor costs (ULCs) indicate a more substantial competitiveness gap, with Italy maintaining an REER gap of about 10 percent against the euro area and 20 percent against Germany.
  • The wage-productivity differential has been growing, especially in the manufacturing sector, contributing significantly to the competitiveness gap.

• Export Price Pass-Through: Italian export prices do not respond strongly to domestic ULCs, and are more influenced by foreign prices and energy costs.

  • The pass-through of domestic costs to export prices is very low for Italy compared to other euro area countries, indicating limited ability to enhance export profitability.
  • The document highlights that the elasticity of exports to REERs is higher within the euro area, particularly for intra-EA exports.

• Current Account Dynamics:

  • Before the crisis, the current account deteriorated due to higher real imports than exports.
  • During the crisis, the current account shifted to a surplus, driven by import compression and commodity terms of trade gains.
  • A real depreciation of about 10 percent is estimated to be needed to realign the current account with fundamentals.

B. Wage Bargaining in Italy

• Wage Setting Mechanism: Wages are set at the sectoral level and extended nationally, not responding to firm-specific productivity or regional disparities.
• Nominal Wage Rigidity: This has led to adjustment through lower profits and employment, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
• Impact of Reforms: A shift to firm-level wage bargaining could reduce unemployment by at least 3.5 percentage points and improve competitiveness over the medium term.
• Labor Market Dynamics:
  • Hourly wages have increased faster than productivity in manufacturing.
  • Productivity in the services sector has also declined, contributing to the competitiveness gap.
  • The wage-productivity gap accounts for about 45 percent of the competitiveness gap in manufacturing compared to Germany.

C. Fiscal and Structural Reforms

• Public Spending Trends: Italy's public spending has been a major component of its fiscal policy, with a significant portion allocated to social benefits and civil service.
• Pension System: The Italian pension system is a key area of concern, with a DB (Defined Benefit) structure that is costly and unsustainable.
• Revenue Rebalancing: The document suggests that tax reforms and fiscal adjustments are necessary to improve the tax structure and reduce the public debt burden.
• Growth-Friendly Fiscal Mix: A combination of administrative, labor, and product market reforms, along with fiscal reforms and bank balance sheet cleaning, is essential for raising productivity and growth.

Key Recommendations

• Reform Wage Bargaining: Move from sectoral to firm-level wage setting to better align wages with productivity.
• Enhance Productivity: Implement product market reforms and improve public sector efficiency to support long-term growth.
• Fiscal Adjustments: Undertake revenue rebalancing and spending reviews to ensure a sustainable fiscal path.
• Address Structural Weaknesses: Focus on innovation, economies of scale, and improving the quality of exports to maintain competitiveness in global markets.
• Real Depreciation: Consider a real depreciation of about 10 percent to help realign the current account with fundamentals.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes that Italy's competitiveness challenge is rooted in rising unit labor costs, low productivity growth, and inflexible wage-setting mechanisms. A comprehensive reform package is needed to address these issues, including structural reforms, fiscal adjustments, and improvements in labor market institutions. These reforms are expected to enhance productivity, improve export performance, and support long-term growth.