战略与国际研究中心-Iraq,-the-Gulf,-Afghanistan_53页_1mb

Summary of "Iraq, the Gulf, Afghanistan: The Way Ahead"

Core Content

This document outlines the challenges and potential strategies for addressing the security, political, and economic situations in Iraq, the Gulf, and Afghanistan. It emphasizes the need for a long-term, comprehensive approach that integrates military, political, and economic efforts to stabilize the region and combat extremism.

Key Challenges

• Iraq:

  • Ongoing threat from Neo-Salafi extremist groups and the risk of a Sunni-Shi'ite divide.
  • Uncertainty about whether the Iraq War will end in a "victory" or forced withdrawal.
  • The challenge of Iran in terms of political influence, proliferation, and asymmetric warfare.
  • The need to restructure the security posture in the Gulf.
  • The necessity for decisive action in Afghanistan.
  • Pakistan as an unstable ally due to its tolerance of terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
  • Regional impact of perceptions of war on terrorism, the Iraq War, and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

• Afghanistan:

  • Ineffective governance at all levels, with corruption being a major issue.
  • Weak economy and infrastructure, especially in rural areas.
  • The Taliban's growing threat and the need to address the narco-economy.
  • Lack of an educated class and modern infrastructure to support development.
  • Insufficient US and NATO forces to counter the insurgency and provide security.
  • The need for a more effective and unified strategy to counterinsurgency and promote stability.

US Civil-Military Strategy

• Counterinsurgency (Win): Focus on winning the hearts and minds of the population.
• Aid Iraqi Security Forces (ISF): Develop both military and police capabilities, with emphasis on rule of law and anti-corruption.
• Political Conciliation and Coexistence: Prioritize political compromise and inclusivity to prevent further division.
• Local Government Services: Improve governance and services at the local level to enhance legitimacy and support.
• Economic Development: Support infrastructure and economic growth to reduce reliance on the narco-economy.
• Local Elections: Implement local election laws to foster democratic participation.
• Federation: Work on a federal structure to avoid civil conflict and ensure equitable distribution of resources.

Key Recommendations

What Might Work - I

• Develop honest and comprehensive security metrics that reflect the overall situation.
• Create realistic military and police development plans with adequate resources.
• Tie US programs to the progress of "hold" and "build" efforts.
• Focus on day-to-day government services and stability rather than rushing democracy.

What Might Work - II

• Continue diplomacy and open dialogue.
• Strengthen military and diplomatic containment.
• Rebuild US-UK position in the Gulf.
• Create more effective GCC and national military and counterterrorism forces.
• Consider military options such as prevention-preemption, containment, and extended deterrence.
• Address the broader Islamic and Arab challenge to Sunni religious extremism and violence.
• Pursue Arab-Israeli peace to reduce regional tensions.

What Might Work - III

• Implement an oil law that ensures equitable distribution of oil revenues and resources.
• Give Sunnis real participation in national government and create inclusive ministries.
• ReBa’athify former Ba’ath supporters who are not guilty of violent crimes.
• Amend the constitution to protect rights and resolve sectarian and ethnic divisions.
• Develop a federal structure to avoid civil conflict.
• Create and implement local election laws.
• Disband or assimilate militias and provide retraining and funding for members.

Iran & The Gulf

• Iran poses a political, proliferation, and asymmetric warfare challenge.
• Its missile program includes 300+ nuclear warheads and various types of delivery systems.
• Iran's influence extends into Afghanistan, especially in Shi'ite regions.
• The US and UK must strengthen their position in the Gulf to counter Iran's influence.

Pakistan’s Role

• Pakistan is a dangerous ally due to its tolerance of Al-Qaeda and Taliban operations.
• The ISI is divided, with some elements aiding insurgents.
• The Afghan government lacks influence in remote areas, leading to local recruitment for the insurgency.
• Addressing Pakistan’s role is critical to counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan.

NATO and US Forces

• NATO needs more unity, forces, and economic aid to match its military efforts.
• The US should increase troop and military advisor numbers, along with civilian aid.
• Emphasize counter-narcotics efforts as part of counterinsurgency.
• Improve coordination and sharing of best practices across NATO and ISAF.
• Develop a unified counterinsurgency strategy and provide airpower and ground forces for sustained operations.

Key Steps Toward Victory

I. Political and Governance Strategy

• Adopt a long-term strategy to build an effective Afghan political and governance system.
• Focus on improving governance at all levels and creating long-term institutional capacity.
• Increase economic aid and prioritize local services and mid-term development projects.
• Support the full package of US funding and forces as needed.

II. Military and Strategic Adjustments

• Face the real-world dangers from Pakistan and apply pressure with aid incentives.
• Engage with Iran, Central Asian states, and other regional powers.
• Seek substantial British reinforcements and address their trade-offs between Iraq and Afghanistan.
• Promote best practices and create a NATO in-country counterinsurgency school.
• Provide US precision airpower and ground forces for NATO operations.

III. Comprehensive Approach

• Develop a GOA-authored and owned whole-of-government campaign plan.
• Bolster GOA capacity at the provincial and district level.
• Promote Afghan information operations and counter-narcotics efforts.
• Implement the "Afghan First" program to stimulate economic growth and employment.
• Improve the quality of Afghan Army and Police trainers.