2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Federal_Democratic_Republic_of_Ethiopia_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_83页_3mb

2018 Article IV Consultation Summary: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

Core Content Overview

The 2018 Article IV Consultation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with Ethiopia assessed the country's economic performance and outlook, focusing on macroeconomic stability, fiscal and monetary policies, structural reforms, and debt sustainability. The consultation was conducted between September 10–26, 2018, with the final assessment made on November 30, 2018.

Key Economic Indicators

Main Points and Recommendations

Economic Performance

• Growth: Ethiopia's real GDP growth slowed to 7.7% in 2017/18 due to political uncertainty and external shocks, but is expected to pick up to 8.5% in 2018/19 as political stability improves.
• External Imbalances: The external current account deficit was reduced to 6.4% of GDP in 2017/18 through fiscal and monetary tightening.
• Inflation: Inflation remained high, reaching 12% in September 2018, but is expected to decline to 8% by the end of 2019 due to tighter monetary policies and the fading effects of the 2017 devaluation.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit was lower than planned at 3.7% of GDP, due to prudent budget execution and expenditure savings.
• Tax Revenue: Tax revenue continued to underperform, but was offset by expenditure controls and pro-poor programs.
• Recommendations: The IMF recommended further fiscal consolidation, revenue-enhancing tax reforms, and the phasing out of implicit subsidies for state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• Monetary Policy: The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) tightened monetary policy, reducing base money growth from 32% in 2017 to 19% in 2018, targeting inflation to converge to its single-digit goal.
• Exchange Rate: The IMF recommended a more flexible exchange rate policy to improve competitiveness and reduce foreign exchange shortages.
• Financial Sector: The IMF emphasized the need for financial sector reforms, including the development of a market for government securities and improving financial intermediation through tax payments via banks.

Structural Reforms

• Private Sector Involvement: The government plans to open key economic sectors to private investment and competition through privatization, public-private partnerships (PPPs), and concession agreements.
• SOE Governance: The authorities are advised to strengthen SOE governance and reduce their reliance on implicit subsidies.
• Investment Climate: Structural reforms are essential to improve the investment climate and attract private and foreign investment, particularly in sectors like finance, energy, and logistics.

Debt Sustainability

• Debt Risk: Ethiopia remains at high risk of debt distress due to a small export base and high public debt.
• Debt Service: Debt service payments are expected to increase as grace periods on non-concessional debt expire.
• Recommendations: The government should reprofile non-concessional debt to increase concessionality and avoid new non-concessional financing for new projects.

Executive Board Assessment

• Growth and Poverty Reduction: Ethiopia has maintained high and inclusive growth over the past decade, significantly reducing poverty and improving living standards.
• Public Sector Strategy: The public sector-led development strategy is reaching its limits, and structural reforms are necessary to sustain growth.
• Support for Reforms: The Executive Board welcomed the government's reform program, particularly the privatization initiatives and opening of key sectors to private investment.

Risks and Outlook

• Short-Term Risks: Downside risks include adverse shocks to foreign investor sentiment, tighter international financing conditions, and continued adverse terms-of-trade trends.
• Medium-Term Outlook: The new administration's reform agenda offers significant upside potential for growth, supported by increased FDI, improved efficiency, and better investment climate.
• Debt Sustainability: The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) is seen as overestimating risks, with the authorities believing that conditions for sustained export growth are in place.

Conclusion

The next Article IV consultation with Ethiopia is expected to follow the standard 12-month cycle. The IMF emphasized the importance of continued fiscal and monetary discipline, structural reforms, and enhancing financial sector efficiency to support sustainable and inclusive growth.