20150216-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_41页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 16 February 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive update on the financial and market performance of various companies and indices across Malaysia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Thailand, along with Melco Crown in Hong Kong and key economic indicators for the region.

Key Stories

Malaysia

Gas Malaysia Berhad (GMB): Initiated coverage with a SELL recommendation and a target price of RM2.40. Earnings are expected to disappoint in the near term due to a tighter regulatory environment.
IOI Corporation: 2QFY15 net profit was RM94m, a -56% qoq and -81% yoy decline, attributed to a higher tax rate and unrealised forex losses. Excluding forex losses, earnings would have been in line with expectations.
Magnum Berhad: 2014 full-year numbers were slightly behind forecasts due to softer ticket sales. Despite weak earnings, the dividend yield remains attractive for 2015.

China

Economic Update:
- M2 growth in Jan 2015 fell to 10.8% yoy, below market expectations of 12.1%, indicating weakening economic activity and contractionary liquidity.
- New renminbi loans increased to Rmb1.47t, exceeding the consensus of Rmb1.35t, suggesting PBOC efforts to stimulate the real economy.
- Total social financing (TSF) rose to Rmb2.05t, up Rmb360b from Dec 2014, driven by higher loans.
Auto Dealers: Auto dealer stocks have fallen ~30% over the past six months due to fears of declining car sales margins. However, structural improvements in profitability and earnings stability are expected, with top picks: Baoxin, Zhengtong, and Zhongsheng.
Top Picks:
- Sunac China (1918 HK): BUY recommendation with a target price of HK$9.29.
- ICBC (1398 HK): BUY recommendation with a target price of HK$6.90.
- Bank Mandiri (BMRI J): BUY recommendation with a target price of IDR12,500.
- Ijm Corp (IJM MK): BUY recommendation with a target price of RM7.60.
- DBS (DBS SP): BUY recommendation with a target price of S$23.55.
- Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP): BUY recommendation with a target price of S$1.00.
- Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB): BUY recommendation with a target price of THB29.00.
- Sino Thai Engr (STEC TB): BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt30.25.
Sell Pick: UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): SELL recommendation with a target price of RM10.00.

Hong Kong

Melco Crown (6883 HK):
- 4Q14 results slightly below expectations, mainly due to poor VIP win rates and the impact of the smoking ban.
- The company plans to open Studio City in 3Q15, and is currently working on junket upgrades at Altira.
- Maintained BUY recommendation with a target price of HK$77.60.

Indonesia

Cement Sector: 1M15 sales volume was flat, growing 0.7% yoy and -13% mom, but sales are expected to improve in 2Q15. Indocement is the top pick, with a OVERWEIGHT rating.

Thailand

Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC TB): 4Q14 results were better than expectations.
IRPC (IRPC TB): Upgraded to BUY due to a strong turnaround in the year.
Thai Vegetable Oil (TVO TB): 4Q14 earnings may increase qoq but drop yoy.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	18019.4	0.3	1.1	2.9	1.1
S&P 500	2097.0	0.4	2.0	3.8	1.9
FTSE 100	6873.5	0.7	0.3	4.9	4.7
AS30	5835.5	2.2	1.1	10.5	8.3
CSI 300	3469.8	0.8	4.8	-4.5	-1.8
FSSTI	3426.2	0.2	-0.1	3.8	1.8
HSCEI	11922.6	1.2	1.9	-1.3	-0.5
HSI	24682.5	1.1	0.0	2.4	4.6
JCI	5374.2	0.6	0.6	4.4	2.8
KLCI	1801.0	0.7	-0.7	3.3	2.3
KOSPI	1957.5	0.8	0.1	3.7	2.2
Nikkei 225	17913.4	-0.4	2.3	6.2	2.7
SET	1615.9	0.2	0.1	6.5	7.9
TWSE	9529.5	0.3	0.8	4.3	2.4
BDI	530	-1.9	-5.2	-28.5	-32.2
CPO (RM/mt)	2258	-1.0	0.1	-3.7	-1.7
Nymex Crude	53	3.1	2.1	15.0	-0.9

Key Assumptions

Region	GDP % yoy	2013	2014	2015F
US	3.2	1.9	2.4	3.2
Euro Zone	1.1	-0.4	0.8	1.1
Japan	1.0	1.5	0.7	1.0
Singapore	3.3	3.9	2.9	3.3
Malaysia	4.7	4.7	6.0	4.7
Thailand	4.0	2.9	0.7	4.0
Indonesia	5.5	5.8	5.0	5.5
Hong Kong	3.7	2.9	3.5	3.7
China	7.0	7.7	7.2	7.0

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start	End
Singapore REITs Analyst Presentation	Singapore	16 Feb	16 Feb
PTT Global Chemical Corporate Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	23 Feb	24 Feb
Plantation Outlook Seminar 2015	Kuala Lumpur	2 Mar	2 Mar
First Resources Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	4 Mar	4 Mar
CIFI Holdings Roadshow	Singapore	16 Mar	16 Mar
ASEAN Conference	Taipei	17 Mar	18 Mar

Sector Updates

Automobile Dealers - China

Auto dealer stocks have been impacted by imported car price wars, but structural improvements in profitability and earnings stability are expected.
Top picks: Baoxin, Zhengtong, and Zhongsheng.
Reasons for improvement:
- Improved bargaining power against OEMs.
- End of channel stuffing by OEMs.
- Bottoming out of new-car sales margins.
- Slowdown in store openings.
- Growth in after-sales service and auto finance businesses.
Valuation: Chinese auto dealers trade at 6-9x 2015F PE, lower than global peers (15x), indicating attractive valuations.

Valuation and Recommendations

Melco Crown (6883 HK)

Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$77.60.
Earnings Impact:
- 4Q14 EBITDA fell 33.3% yoy and 11.1% qoq.
- VIP segment performance was weak, but junket upgrades at Altira are expected to drive performance rebound in 1H15.
Project Updates:
- Studio City is expected to open in 3Q15.
- The project is anticipated to have non-gaming facilities, which could attract more customers.
Valuation:
- SOTP Valuation of HK$77.60.
- Market Cap: HK$111,409.4m.
- Share Price: HK$68.35.
- Upside: +13.5% to the previous target price.

Summary of Key Insights

Malaysia: GMB faces regulatory challenges, while IOI and Magnum have weak earnings but attractive dividends.
China: M2 growth is weak, but new loans and TSF indicate PBOC efforts to stimulate the economy. Auto dealers are expected to improve, with Baoxin, Zhengtong, and Zhongsheng as top picks.
Hong Kong: Melco Crown is maintaining a BUY recommendation, with Studio City as a key growth catalyst.
Indonesia: Cement sector is expected to recover in 2Q15, with Indocement as the top pick.
Thailand: STEC and IRPC show positive results, while TVO faces earnings declines.
Valuation Insights: Chinese auto dealers are undervalued compared to global peers, with attractive valuations and potential for growth.

Analyst Contacts

Chaoping Zhu:
- Email: chaoping@uobkayhian.com
- Phone: +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822
Ken Lee:
- Email: ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Phone: +852 2236 6760
Victor Yip:
- Email: victor.yip@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Phone: +852 2826 1392