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Argentina: Election Tracker Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the 2019 Argentine election process, political parties, voting intentions, and the current composition of Congress. It also outlines the key features of the election calendar and the political landscape in terms of party affiliations and re-election rules at the provincial level.

Election Calendar and Process

• Presidential Election:

  • The first round requires a candidate to secure either 45% of valid votes or at least 40% with a 10 percentage point lead over the runner-up. If neither condition is met, a second round will be held.

• Legislative Elections:

  • Held on the same date as the first round of the presidential election.
  • In 2019, elections will be for one-third of the Senate and half of the lower chamber (Chamber of Deputies).

• Provincial Elections:

  • All provinces, except Corrientes and Santiago del Estero, will elect governors and local legislators.
  • Gubernatorial elections typically occur on the same day as the first round of the presidential election, but some provinces may change the date for political reasons.
  • Buenos Aires has recently considered advancing its local elections.

Main Political Parties and Coalitions

Cambiemos (Centre-right coalition)

• Leader: President Mauricio Macri.
• Economic Policies:
  • Liberalized the FX market.
  • Reduced energy subsidies.
  • Implemented fiscal adjustments, which were accelerated in 2018-19.
• Seats in Congress:
  • Senate: 26 / 72
  • Lower chamber: 108 / 257
• Key Party Leaders:
  • Martín Moreno (PRO), Agustín Cornejo (UCR), Elisa Carrió (CC-ARI), María Eugenia Vidal (PRO)

Frente para la Victoria (Left-wing coalition)

• Leader: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
• Economic Policies:
  • Aims to unite citizens to limit the power of President Macri and protect social rights.
  • Plans to ensure party unity in voting, unlike some Peronist legislators.
• Seats in Congress:
  • Senate: 9 / 72
  • Lower chamber: 64 / 257

Partido Justicialista (Peronist party)

• Founded: 1946 by General Perón.
• Current Name: Adopted in 1971.
• Affiliates: Around 3.5 million in 2017.
• Seats in Congress:
  • Senate: 23 / 72
  • Lower chamber: 37 / 257
• Key Party Leaders: Miguel Pichetto and Diego Bossio.

Other Parties

• 1 País: 5.86% in lower chamber, 9.53% in Senate.
• Unión por Córdoba: 2.55% in lower chamber.
• Frente de Izquierda (FIT): 4.28% in lower chamber, 4.30% in Senate.
• Frente Renovador: 1.09% in lower chamber, 2.29% in Senate.

Confidence, Political Image, and Voting Intentions

• Confidence in Government:

  • Public confidence is low, as indicated by survey data.

• Voters' Views on Fiscal Adjustment:

  • The proposed fiscal adjustment in the 2019 budget bill is viewed with mixed reactions, with some segments of the population supporting it and others opposing it.

• Political Leaders' Image:

  • Cambiemos leaders have a positive image among voters.
  • Cambiemos leaders also have a negative image in certain contexts.
  • Opposition leaders (including Frente para la Victoria) have a positive image.
  • Opposition leaders also have a negative image in some surveys.

Current Composition of Congress

• 2017 Legislative Election Results:
  • Cambiemos: 41.75% in lower chamber, 41.01% in Senate.
  • Unidad Ciudadana: 22.51% in lower chamber, 33.33% in Senate.
  • Partido Justicialista: 10.9% in lower chamber, 7.50% in Senate.
  • 1 País: 5.86% in lower chamber, 9.53% in Senate.
  • Frente de Izquierda (FIT): 4.28% in lower chamber, 4.30% in Senate.

Provincial Election Details

• Seats at Stake in National Congress (2019):

  • Senate: 23 provinces will elect Senators.
  • Lower Chamber: 23 provinces will elect Legislators.
  • Some provinces (e.g., Buenos Aires, CABA, Mendoza) will have governors elected on the same day as the presidential election.

• Re-election Rules:

  • 3 provinces allow indefinite re-election: Catamarca, Formosa, Santa Cruz.
  • 2 provinces allow re-election for two additional terms: Salta, San Juan.
  • 17 provinces allow re-election for one additional term.
  • 2 provinces allow re-election but not for consecutive terms: Mendoza, Santa Fe.

Key Information

• The presidential election is a critical event in 2019, with potential candidates from Cambiemos, Frente para la Victoria, and other coalitions.
• Voting intentions are influenced by the political image of candidates and the economic policies they advocate.
• Provincial elections are significant for shaping the national political landscape, especially in regions with opposition governors.
• The 2019 election is expected to reflect ongoing political and economic tensions in Argentina.

Recent Publications

The document also references recent economic and strategy publications from BNP Paribas, including analyses on:

• Mexico Policy Tracker
• Colombia: Tax reform backpedalling
• EM sovereign risk
• FX positioning in Latin America
• Brazil and Chile market updates
• Argentina's constrained growth outlook

Disclaimer

• This is a non-independent research document, subject to conflicts of interest.
• It is a marketing communication and not investment research.
• No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• Performance data may be based on back-testing and simulations.
• Confidentiality is emphasized, and the document is intended for professional clients only.

This summary captures the core content, main political parties, voting intentions, Congress composition, and provincial election details from the document, while adhering to the word limit and Markdown formatting.