20181207-法国巴黎银行-NOVEMBER_EMPLOYMENT_WATCH__MODERATION_8页_916kb

US Market Economics Summary: November Employment Watch

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the US employment data for November 2018, focusing on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and related economic indicators. It outlines the key trends, comparisons, and implications for the broader financial markets.

Key Employment Data

• Nonfarm Payrolls Growth:

  • November 2018: 155,000 jobs added, below both the forecast and consensus expectations.
  • October 2018: 237,000 jobs added.
  • Year-over-Year (YoY): The annual wage growth rate edged down to 3.05%, while the monthly wage growth was 0.2%.

• Unemployment Rate:

  • November 2018: Remained unchanged at 3.7%.
  • October 2018: 3.67%.
  • Participation Rate: Held steady at 62.92%.

• Underemployment Rate:

  • November 2018: 7.6%, slightly down from the previous month.

Sector Contributions to Payroll Growth

Key Trends and Observations

• Payroll Growth Moderation:

  • The slowdown in hiring in November was expected, but the overall payroll growth remains robust.
  • The monthly wage growth of 0.2% is solid but slightly below consensus.
  • The annual wage growth rate decreased to 3.05%, indicating a cooling trend in wage increases.

• Sectoral Analysis:

  • Private Sector: The private sector saw a significant slowdown in job creation, with a contribution of 161,000 jobs in November, down from 251,000 in October.
  • Services Sector: Dominated the payroll growth, contributing 132,000 jobs, with a notable drop in the contribution from 198,000 in October.
  • Construction: A sharp decline in job creation, with a contribution of 5,000 jobs in November, down from 24,000 in October.
  • Government Sector: Continued to show a contraction in job creation, with -6,000 jobs added in November, compared to -14,000 in October.

• Future Outlook:

  • The report suggests that future employment data is likely to remain close to November’s pace, rather than rebounding to October’s levels.
  • Despite the slowdown, the payrolls growth is still above the Fed's estimated break-even rate, indicating a resilient labor market.

Important Disclosures

• This document is non-independent research and is intended for Relevant Persons as defined by MiFID II.
• It may contain Research content for those in scope of MiFID II unbundling rules who have signed up to BNPP Global Markets Research packages.
• BNPP may have conflicts of interest due to its involvement in investment banking, underwriting, and other services.
• Indicative prices and simulated performance are provided for informational purposes and are not guaranteed.
• Options and ETFs discussed in the document are subject to specific risks and disclosures.
• Securities mentioned may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain investors.
• This document is not intended to be used by non-Relevant Persons and may not constitute a prospectus or public offering.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• The document is prepared by a BNP Paribas group company and is intended for the use of intended recipients only.
• It is subject to legal restrictions and must not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.
• BNPP and its affiliates may hold positions or act as market makers in the financial instruments discussed.
• Confidentiality is emphasized, and no liability is accepted for any use or reliance on the information contained.
• The document is not investment research and does not provide financial, legal, or tax advice.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all estimates and opinions are subject to change without notice.