国际危机组织-越南在南中国海的合作与斗争之间寻求平衡（英）-2021.12-44页_840kb

Summary of "Vietnam Tacks Between Cooperation and Struggle in the South China Sea"

Core Content

The document provides an in-depth analysis of Vietnam's approach to the South China Sea (SCS) dispute, highlighting its complex and multifaceted strategy to balance cooperation with China and assert its national interests. Vietnam is a key claimant in the SCS, with historical and legal claims to the Paracel and Spratly Islands. The report outlines Vietnam's policy framework, the role of its political and administrative structures, and the challenges it faces in the context of rising tensions with China and the involvement of major powers like the U.S.

Main Points

• Rising Tensions: The SCS has become a major flashpoint in Asia, with increasing assertiveness from China and the growing involvement of the U.S. and its allies. The risk of armed conflict has escalated over the past five years.

• Vietnam's Role: As a major claimant, Vietnam's actions and policies have significant implications for regional security. It seeks to protect its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and economic interests in the SCS.

• Policy Pillars: Vietnam's SCS policy is based on three pillars:

  • Historical and legal claims to the Paracels and Spratlys.
  • Opposition to the use of force and pursuit of a peaceful, long-term resolution in accordance with international law.
  • Cooperation with other claimants and major powers to manage disputes and maintain stability.

• Strategic Dilemma: Vietnam's policy is characterized by a "cooperating and struggling" approach, aiming to maintain peace while defending its core interests. This strategy involves both engagement and balancing against China's assertiveness.

Key Policies and Actions

A. Engaging China

Vietnam seeks to maintain economic ties with China, which is its largest trading partner. Despite tensions, it aims to avoid escalations that could lead to conflict.

B. Upgrading Military and Maritime Law Enforcement Capabilities

Vietnam has been strengthening its naval and coast guard forces to deter Chinese maritime coercion. These upgrades are part of its broader balancing strategy.

C. Preparing for Legal Battles

Vietnam has been preparing for legal disputes with China by collecting historical and legal evidence, and by advocating for the resolution of its claims in line with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

D. ASEAN Mechanisms and the South China Sea Code of Conduct

Vietnam uses ASEAN frameworks to constrain China's ambitions. It advocates for the conclusion of a substantive Code of Conduct (COC) for the SCS, which would help manage disputes and promote regional stability.

E. Deepening Strategic Cooperation with Major Powers

Vietnam is enhancing its strategic partnerships with the U.S., Japan, Russia, and India to bolster its position in the SCS. This cooperation is seen as a way to counterbalance China's influence, though it carries risks of entanglement in great-power rivalries.

Substantive Issues

Vietnam's claims in the SCS are based on historical and legal grounds, particularly regarding the Paracels and Spratlys. The country has had some success in resolving maritime boundaries with China in the Gulf of Tonkin and with Indonesia. It has also engaged in joint projects with China, the Philippines, and Malaysia in areas like fisheries, oil and gas, and marine research.

Way Forward

The report recommends that Vietnam and other claimants:

• Accelerate negotiations to reduce the scope of disputes.
• Promote cooperation in less sensitive areas to build mutual trust.
• Bring claims into conformity with international law.
• Finalize the South China Sea Code of Conduct.
• Use past experiences of cooperation to foster new initiatives.

Conclusion

Vietnam's approach to the SCS is shaped by its historical claims, national sovereignty, and strategic balancing. While it seeks peaceful resolution in accordance with international law, it also maintains a firm stance against China's maritime assertiveness. The country's one-party system ensures consistent policy-making, but domestic political dynamics and external pressures complicate its ability to achieve a comprehensive resolution of the dispute.

Key Information

• Historical Claims: Vietnam asserts historical control over the Paracels and Spratlys, supported by white papers and diplomatic documents.
• Legal Framework: Vietnam relies on UNCLOS to support its claims and has been collecting evidence to bolster its legal position.
• Military and Law Enforcement: Vietnam is upgrading its military capabilities and maritime law enforcement to deter Chinese actions.
• ASEAN and Major Powers: Vietnam uses ASEAN mechanisms and deepens ties with the U.S., Japan, Russia, and India to counterbalance China.
• Past Successes: Vietnam has resolved maritime boundaries with China and Indonesia and engaged in joint projects with other claimants.
• Recommendations: The report calls for accelerated negotiations, cooperation in non-sensitive areas, and the finalization of the COC.

Appendices

• Map of the South China Sea: Illustrates the geographical context of the dispute.
• Map of Occupation in the Spratlys: Shows the current occupation status of the islands.
• Recommendations: Suggests steps for Vietnam and other claimants to manage the dispute peacefully.
• About the International Crisis Group: Provides background on the organization that produced the report.
• Reports and Briefings: Lists other Crisis Group reports on Asia since 2018.
• Board of Trustees: Details the governance structure of the International Crisis Group.