2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Fiscal_Multipliers_in_Ukraine_17页_956kb

Summary of "Fiscal Multipliers in Ukraine"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper by Pritha Mitra and Tigran Poghosyan analyzes fiscal multipliers in Ukraine using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The study aims to assess the impact of fiscal consolidation on economic growth and to determine whether revenue or spending instruments are more effective, and whether current or capital spending has a stronger influence.

Main Points

• Fiscal Policy Role: Fiscal policy plays a critical role in stabilizing the Ukrainian economy, especially amid crisis, falling tax revenues, and rising debt.
• Fiscal Multipliers: The paper estimates that Ukraine's near-term fiscal multipliers are below one, indicating that fiscal consolidation may have a modest impact on growth in the short run.
• Spending vs. Revenue Multipliers: In the short term, the impact spending multiplier is 0.4, while the impact revenue multiplier is -0.3, suggesting that spending has a more positive effect on growth than revenue.
• Medium-Term Effects: In the medium term, the revenue multiplier becomes insignificant, while the spending multiplier strengthens to 1.4. This implies that the adverse effects of fiscal consolidation on growth can be mitigated by increasing capital spending.
• Capital vs. Current Spending: Capital spending has a similar short-term effect to current spending but its impact lasts longer. This suggests that capital investment can be a more sustainable tool for growth support during fiscal consolidation.
• Policy Implications: Given the severe economic challenges, policymakers should consider the trade-offs between growth and fiscal adjustment. While multiplier estimates suggest a combination of revenue and spending measures, the large size of current spending in the budget may necessitate more emphasis on current spending cuts.
• Robustness: The results are robust across different model specifications, including the use of 4 lags and exclusion of exogenous variables.

Key Information

Methodology

• A structural VAR model is used to estimate fiscal multipliers.
• The model accounts for endogeneity by using quarterly data from 2001:Q1 to 2013:Q4.
• The identification strategy is based on policy sequencing (spending first or revenue first), with assumptions that the government cannot immediately adjust spending in response to GDP fluctuations.
• The model also incorporates exogenous variables such as current account balance-to-GDP ratio, real M2 money supply, and general government debt-to-GDP ratio to improve estimation precision.

Estimation Results

Key Findings

• Short-Term: Fiscal consolidation based on a mix of revenue and spending measures has a modest effect on growth.
• Medium-Term: Revenue multipliers are insignificant, and spending multipliers increase to 1.4.
• Capital Spending: While capital and current spending have similar short-term impacts, the capital multiplier remains significant for longer.
• Policy Recommendations: Policymakers should consider using capital spending to offset current spending cuts in the medium term to minimize adverse growth effects.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while fiscal consolidation is necessary for Ukraine's economic stability, the effectiveness of different instruments varies. The spending multiplier is more impactful in the medium term, and capital spending can help cushion the negative effects of current spending cuts. However, due to the large size of current spending and the severe economic conditions, the reliance on current spending cuts may be unavoidable, even though multiplier estimates suggest a more diversified approach.

The results emphasize the importance of policy sequencing, public debt sustainability, investor confidence, and public spending efficiency in shaping fiscal policy decisions in Ukraine.