战略与国际研究中心-Transnational-Threats-Update-May-2008_6页_141kb

TRANSNATIONAL THREATS UPDATE Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of transnational threats facing various regions in May 2008. It highlights issues related to regional security, energy security, drug trafficking, cyber security, and terrorism, with a focus on the interconnected nature of these challenges and their global implications.

Main Threats and Trends

1. Regional Security Threats

• Afghanistan: The Afghan insurgency is heavily funded by the opium trade, with 20-40% of its revenue coming from poppy cultivation. The country produces 93% of the world's opium, with 8,200 tons produced in 2007, valued at $4 billion.
• NATO and ISAF: Approximately 70,000 NATO and U.S. troops are engaged in counterinsurgency efforts. Improved coordination with Afghan forces has led to more effective attacks on militants.
• Civilian Casualties: There has been a noticeable decrease in civilian casualties due to more precise military operations and better planning.
• Taliban Activity: The Taliban has been emboldened by a ceasefire agreement with Pakistan, leading to increased attacks. However, General McNeill predicts a lull in militant activity as Pakistan resumes military operations.

2. Violence in Sudan

• Civil War Risk: Fighting between the Sudan People's Liberation Army and the Sudanese government has intensified, with rebel groups like the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) contributing to the violence.
• JEM Attack: On May 10, JEM attacked Omdurman, resulting in over 300 casualties. The government has labeled JEM as a terrorist organization and responded with mass arrests and public executions.
• Human Rights Concerns: These actions have drawn criticism from human rights groups due to potential abuses and the risk of escalating into genocide.
• International Response: The UN reports that the violence has hindered humanitarian efforts in Darfur, where over 2.5 million refugees have been created.

3. Energy Security

• Niger Delta Violence: The region has experienced a surge in militant activity targeting oil workers, with over 200 kidnappings since 2006. This has significantly impacted Nigeria's oil production.
• Economic Impact: Despite Nigeria's relatively small contribution to the global oil supply, the instability in the region has affected global prices.
• Shift in Targets: Militant groups are now targeting politicians, public figures, and businessmen to deter foreign investment in the oil industry.

4. Drug Trafficking

• Submarine Technology: Colombian drug traffickers have developed submarines to evade detection, capable of carrying over 12 tons of contraband and traveling 3,000 km submerged.
• Ukraine as a Transit Point: Ukraine is a major transit hub for drugs moving between Russia and Western Europe. Large seizures of heroin and cocaine have been reported, but only a small percentage of drug traffic is intercepted.
• Social and Organized Crime Impact: Drug proliferation leads to increased HIV infections, organized crime, and violence. It also fuels connections between criminal and terrorist networks.

5. Cyber Security

• DARPA's National Cyber Range: The U.S. government has initiated a top-secret project to create a virtual lab for researching cyber warfare, drawing comparisons to the Manhattan Project and the Space Race.
• Threats and Concerns: The project aims to assess cyber threats and develop defensive countermeasures. Critics worry about privacy violations and the potential for data mining. There is also concern about international espionage and the future of cyber warfare.
• Metasecurity Needs: The project must be protected from external threats, as hackers, especially from China, are adept at stealing sensitive information.

6. Transnational Crime

• Gangs as Criminal Entities: Urban gangs are increasingly seen as powerful and insidious, often functioning as de facto governments in areas where the state has limited control.
• Mungiki in Kenya: This gang has been responsible for much of the violence following the disputed 2007 election, and it combines elements of criminal activity, militia, and social services.
• MS-13 in the Americas: MS-13 has expanded into a transnational network, operating in the U.S. and Central/South America. It is known for its brutality and has killed rival gangs, police, and civilians.
• Zhu Lien Bang in Taiwan: This gang is linked to international criminal networks and has been involved in targeted killings. It is considered the violent arm of the Kuomintang (KMT).

Terrorism Trends

1. Decline in Global Terrorism?

• UN Report: The UN claims global terrorism is declining, with a 40% drop in terrorist deaths since 2001 when excluding Iraq.
• Contradictory Views: American think tanks and policy institutes argue that terrorism deaths have increased, highlighting the discrepancy in data interpretation and the influence of political agendas on reporting.

2. New Activities of al Qaeda Allies in Africa

• AQIM in Algeria: The group al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is attempting to expand al Qaeda's influence in Africa. It has links with drug traffickers and is involved in bomb-making activities.
• Terrorist Networks: AQIM has been training other radical groups in the Maghreb and is using the Saharan region to avoid detection.

3. Terrorist Bombing in Jaipur, India

• Attack Details: Nine bomb explosions occurred in Jaipur on May 13, killing dozens and injuring over 200. The group Harkut-ul-Jehad-i Islami (HuJI) claimed responsibility.
• Confusion Over Groups: There is uncertainty about whether HuJI and the Indian Mujahideen are separate or overlapping groups. Both are linked to Bangladeshi organizations.
• Social Impact: The attack is seen as an attempt to polarize Indian society along religious lines, particularly in a city with a predominantly Hindu population.

Combating Terrorism

1. ETA's Leadership Erodes

• Arrest of Key Members: Francisco Javier López Peña, a key ETA leader, was arrested in May 2008. This follows the arrest of its previous leader, Mikel Albizu, in 2004.
• FARC's Decline: The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) is facing internal collapse due to the death and arrest of several senior members. FARC is still holding around 700 hostages, including political figures like Ingrid Betancourt.
• Impact on Strategy: The loss of leadership may lead to a shift in FARC's tactics, though analysts remain cautious about assuming an imminent ceasefire or disarmament.

Conclusion

This update underscores the complex and evolving nature of transnational threats, emphasizing the need for coordinated, adaptive, and inclusive strategies to address them. It highlights the interplay between economic, political, and security factors in regions such as Afghanistan, Sudan, Nigeria, and India, while also pointing to the technological advancements in drug trafficking and the increasing sophistication of cyber warfare. The document serves as a reminder of the global reach of these threats and the importance of international cooperation in countering them.