战略与国际研究中心-Transnational-Threats-Update-March-2008_5页_168kb

Transnational Threats Update Summary (March 2008)

Core Content

This document provides a detailed overview of various transnational threats facing the global community, including arms trafficking, terrorism, radicalism, nuclear threats, transnational crime, maritime piracy, terror financing, cyber crime, and money laundering. It highlights the interconnectedness of these issues and their implications for international security and stability.

Main Topics and Key Information

Arms Trafficking

• Viktor Bout, a notorious Russian arms dealer, was arrested in Thailand on March 6 in a sting operation involving the FARC.
• Bout used his private air fleet to smuggle weapons to African countries, including the Congo, Sudan, and Sierra Leone.
• His activities included both arms smuggling and delivering relief supplies to areas affected by conflict.
• Andrew Smulian, Bout's associate, was also arrested in Thailand and had previously negotiated arms sales with FARC.
• Semyon Yukovich Mogilevich, a Ukrainian criminal, is linked to the smuggling of enriched uranium to FARC.

Terrorism

• Jerrold Post published The Mind of the Terrorist, emphasizing the rational and ideological motivations behind terrorist actions.
• Terrorists are categorized into political, religious, and social radicals, each with distinct recruitment and leadership methods.
• The book received praise from notable experts like Jessica Stern and Peter Bergen.
• China claimed to have foiled a terrorist plot targeting the 2008 Beijing Olympics, linking it to the Uighur independence movement. However, experts remain skeptical of the claim.
• Philippines arrested three individuals plotting to bomb embassies of the U.S., Britain, Australia, and Israel, suspected of ties to Abu Sayyaf Group and Jemaah Islamiyah.
• Cüneyt Ciftci, a German-born Turk, is believed to be the first German citizen to carry out a suicide attack in Afghanistan.

Radicalism

• Geert Wilders released a controversial film, Fitna, criticizing Islam and linking it to violence, which sparked significant backlash.
• The film's release was delayed and faced opposition from Dutch media and public figures.
• Wilders defended his actions, claiming he was only criticizing the ideology of Islam, not Muslims themselves.

Nuclear Threats

• FARC is suspected of seeking uranium for a potential "dirty bomb."
• The uranium is reportedly sourced from a stolen Russian storage site in Chelyabinsk.
• Ukrainian criminal groups are believed to be involved in the resale of enriched uranium.
• Russia's Federal Atomic Agency reported a significant increase in nuclear trafficking through Europe.

Transnational Crime

• Terrorist groups are increasingly linked to criminal organizations through financial and logistical support.
• The Taliban is largely funded by the opium trade, which accounts for about 93% of global supply.
• Dawood Ibrahim's Indian crime group engaged in drug smuggling and money laundering before expanding into arms trafficking.
• These links can weaken the ideological cohesion of terrorist groups, leading to internal conflict and disintegration.

Maritime Piracy

• Nigeria has experienced a surge in maritime piracy, with over 50 attacks on fishing trawlers in January 2008.
• The threat extends to oil and shipping industries, affecting global trade and economic development.
• Philippine seamen are particularly vulnerable, as 40% of the world's seamen come from the Philippines.
• The trend has led to increased costs and reduced investment in the region.

Terror Financing

• Chiquita Brands International was sued by the families of American missionaries killed by FARC for allegedly financing the group by paying to avoid attacks on its plantations.
• The company also faced a $7.86 billion lawsuit for payments to the AUC, a former terrorist group in Colombia.
• These actions suggest a pattern of corporate complicity in terror financing.

Cyber Crime

• Anti-China human rights groups, including those focused on Tibet and Darfur, have been targeted by malware attacks.
• These attacks are believed to originate from Chinese computers and aim to steal sensitive information.
• The use of seemingly legitimate file names and types makes users less likely to detect the malicious content, indicating a trend in cyber crime tactics.

Combating Terrorism

• The U.S. conducted a Tomahawk missile strike in Somalia on March 3, targeting a high-ranking al Qaeda leader.
• This is part of an ongoing military campaign in Somalia, where al-Shabaab has been a major threat.
• The conflict has led to the displacement of over 1 million refugees, many fleeing to Kenya and Sudan.

Drug Activity

• Panama has become a key transit point for Colombian drug smugglers, who use private planes to bypass radar.
• Drug docks allow for untraceable stopovers, facilitating smuggling by sea.
• The Panamanian government acknowledges its weak counternarcotics efforts and criticizes Colombia for lack of control over traffickers.

Money Laundering

• Uzbekistan has placed an international anti-money laundering (AML/CFT) law on moratorium for five years.
• The country has also passed legislation limiting financial intelligence sharing with international agencies.
• This has created a safe haven for money laundering and terrorism financing, raising concerns about regional and global security.

Conclusion

The document underscores the complex and evolving nature of transnational threats, highlighting the interplay between terrorism, organized crime, and illicit financial activities. It emphasizes the need for international cooperation and intelligence sharing to combat these challenges effectively.