卡内基国际和平基金会-Stabilizing-Sino-Indian-Security-Relations-Managing-the-Strategic-Rivalry-After-Doklam_38页_1mb

STABILIZING SINO-INDIAN SECURITY RELATIONS

Core Content

The document titled "Stabilizing Sino-Indian Security Relations: Managing Strategic Rivalry After Doklam" by Frank O'Donnell analyzes the evolving security dynamics between China and India, particularly in the context of the Doklam standoff in 2017. It highlights the growing mistrust and strategic competition between the two nations, driven by their military posturing and differing perceptions of each other's intentions.

The central argument is that both countries are moving toward a more aggressive military posture, which has increased the risk of unintended escalation. The document emphasizes the need for enhanced communication and strategic dialogue to stabilize their relationship and reduce the chances of conflict.

Main Points

1. Doklam Standoff and Escalation

• The 2017 Doklam crisis involved Indian military efforts to block Chinese road construction in a disputed area with Bhutan, leading to mutual force buildups and explicit threats.
• Despite the limited territorial scope, the crisis accelerated preexisting security dilemma dynamics.
• The decline in strategic trust between the two nations began before and extends beyond the Doklam incident.

2. Indian Conventional Military Developments

• India has been modernizing its conventional forces along the border with China, including:
  • Construction of new border roads (73 planned, 27 completed by 2017).
  • Formation of specialized mountain divisions (e.g., Fifty-Sixth and Seventy-First Mountain Divisions) and the Seventeenth Mountain Strike Corps.
  • Deployment of T-90 tanks and T-72M1 tanks in strategic areas like Ladakh.
  • Acquisition of Sukhoi Su-30MKI and Rafale fighter aircraft, and establishment of new airfields near the border.
• These developments are seen by Chinese analysts as offensive in nature, potentially leading to increased hostility.

3. Indian Nuclear Developments

• India has been expanding its nuclear arsenal, with a focus on missiles capable of reaching Chinese mainland targets.
• The Agni-II and Agni-III missiles have a range of 2,000 km and 3,200 km, respectively, and are believed to be deployed in northeastern India.
• The Agni-V missile, with a range of 5,000 km, and nuclear-armed submarines are also under development.
• Chinese analysts perceive these developments as indicative of India's desire for offensive nuclear capability, not just minimal deterrence.
• India's nuclear doctrine is based on minimum deterrence, aiming to deter China without excessive force.

4. Chinese Perceptions of India

• China views India as a secondary or tertiary challenge compared to the U.S., Russia, and Japan.
• However, recent Chinese assessments have become more concerned about India's military modernization, especially its nuclear and conventional force posturing.
• Chinese experts believe that India's military advancements are driven by a desire for great-power status, rather than a defensive response to Chinese actions.

5. Policy Recommendations

• Establish bilateral military-to-military communication links at the national and theater levels to reduce misinterpretations.
• Initiate a comprehensive strategic and nuclear dialogue to clarify intentions and reduce mutual threat perceptions.
• Cease provocative border activities such as construction and incursions in disputed areas, as these elevate Indian threat perceptions and hinder peace efforts.

Key Information

• The Doklam crisis was a significant event in the deterioration of Sino-Indian relations.
• India's conventional military modernization is seen by Chinese analysts as offensive.
• India's nuclear developments, especially the Agni-III, are seen as a credible threat to Chinese targets.
• China's own military modernization includes logistical improvements and a more proactive posture.
• Strategic mistrust is fueled by perceptions of each other's military intentions.
• The author emphasizes the importance of direct communication and dialogue to prevent escalation and build mutual understanding.

Conclusion

The document concludes that both China and India must take steps to stabilize their security relationship, particularly by enhancing communication, clarifying strategic intentions, and reducing provocative military actions. It argues that military competition is a key driver of the security dilemma, and that reducing these tensions is essential to avoid further escalation and achieve a peaceful partnership.