GFK-后疫情时代全球TV市场需求预测（英文）-2021.5-27页_846kb

报告摘要

Global TV Market Demand Forecast in Post COVID Era Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a forecast of global TV market demand in the post-COVID era, with a focus on LCD and OLED technologies, as well as 8K TVs. It outlines regional demand trends, size migration patterns, and average selling prices (ASP) for 2021.

Global LCD Demand Outlook

2021 LCD Demand: 215.0 million units, representing an 8.2% year-over-year (y/y) decline.
Reasons for Decline:
- Most developed regions experienced y/y declines due to the economic impact of the pandemic.
- Emerging markets were negatively affected by high panel prices and economic conditions, limiting low-end TV purchases.

Regional LCD Demand Analysis

Latin America (L. America)

2021 LCD Demand: -10.0% y/y.
Key Trends:
- High mix of 32"/43" segments and low-end models due to low purchasing power.
- Soft size migration in 2021 except for 4Q21 promotions.
- Consumers are paying more for smaller models due to high panel prices.

Western Europe (W. Europe)

2021 LCD Demand: -5.5% y/y.
Key Trends:
- Smaller average TV size compared to other developed markets due to limited living space.
- Brands are pushing premium features (e.g., mini LED, Dolby Vision IQ) to improve margins.
- Size migration is expected to accelerate in 2H21 with a higher mix of premium models.

Central Europe (C. Europe)

2021 LCD Demand: -1.2% y/y.
Key Trends:
- CIS market (avg. size: 42", ASP: USD348) vs. ex-CIS market (avg. size: 47", ASP: USD477).
- ASP is largely flat due to high component costs and currency depreciation in Russia.
- Size migration comes mainly from countries like Poland and the Czech Republic.

Middle East & Africa (MEA)

2021 LCD Demand: +2.2% y/y.
Key Trends:
- Economic negativity due to the pandemic has resulted in softer size migration.
- Average size is expected to remain low until the latter part of the year.
- ASP is stable within USD40-50 due to high panel costs, leading consumers to opt for tier-2 brands.

China Mainland

2021 LCD Demand: +3.6% y/y.
Key Trends:
- Aggressive size migration with a strong mix in the 60-69" segment.
- Significant growth expected in the 75" segment.
- Brands are focusing on large-sized LCD and premium models to improve profitability.

Emerging Asia (Emg. Asia)

2021 LCD Demand: +2.2% y/y.
Key Trends:
- Strong mix of 32" TVs driven by India due to high VAT tax, resulting in small average size but high ASP.
- Vietnam and Thailand focus on 50/55" 4K TVs.
- High pricing and soft purchasing power push consumers toward smaller models, leading to softer size migration.

Japan

2021 LCD Demand: -10.0% y/y.
Key Trends:
- Small average size due to consumer preference for quality over size.
- High mix of premium models.
- ASP declined in 1Q21 due to increased pricing on 2021 lineups, but is expected to improve in 2H21 with promotions.

Developed Asia ex-Japan (Dev. Asia ex-Japan)

2021 LCD Demand: +2.2% y/y.
Key Trends:
- High purchasing power leads to a strong mix of premium models.
- Aggressive size migration driven by South Korea's improving mix (avg. size: 60", ASP: USD1400+).
- Softening demand in Taiwan, China, and Australia after aggressive growth in 2020.

TV Technology Trends

OLED Demand Outlook

2021 OLED Demand: 5.9 million units, representing a 25% y/y increase.
Key Trends:
- Growth is mainly concentrated in Western Europe and the US due to smaller average sizes, high purchasing power, and brand competition.
- 55" remains the primary segment, while 65" and 77" are largely unaffordable for most consumers.
- 48" pricing is similar to 55", limiting demand.
- If 65" OLED pricing declines, it could improve the mix in North America and Developed Asia, posing a risk to existing high-end 65" LCD TVs.

8K Demand Outlook

2021 8K Demand: 558.5 thousand units, representing a 166% y/y increase.
Key Trends:
- 65" is the main segment, while 55" share remains stable at ~20%.
- 8K TVs are still prohibitively expensive, with ASP expected to remain ~USD3k until November 2021.
- More aggressive growth may occur once ASP drops below USD2k.

Forecast Table

8K Global ex-NA Demand	2019	2020	2021-F	2022-F	2023-F	2024-F
(Units)	64.8k	209.9k	558.5k	1054.9k	1656.7k	2091.7k
y/y Growth	>1000%	224%	166%	89%	57%	26%

Key Takeaways

LCD demand is expected to decline in most developed regions, while emerging markets and China Mainland show some growth.
Size migration is influenced by economic conditions, panel pricing, and consumer preferences.
OLED is gaining traction in premium segments, especially in Western Europe and North America.
8K TVs are still niche due to high costs, but demand is growing rapidly, with a focus on 65" models.