2015年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_declared_end_of_South_Stream_and_why_nobody_seems_to_care_2页_463kb

The Declared End of South Stream and Why Nobody Seems to Care

Core Content

The South Stream pipeline project, which was first announced in June 2007, was officially abandoned by Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit to Turkey in December 2014. This decision was not without controversy, as it raised questions about the reasons behind the termination and its implications for the EU and Russia's energy relations.

Main Reasons for Abandonment

1. EU Legal Objections
   The European Commission criticized the project for violating EU internal market legislation, particularly the Third Energy Package and the Gas Directive, which require:

   • Unbundling: Separation of energy networks from supply.
   • Third Party Access: Non-discriminatory access to infrastructure for all market participants.

   In December 2013, the Commission found that the Intergovernmental Agreements (IGAs) between Russia and several EU member states were in breach of EU law. Russia rejected these findings, asserting that international law, not EU regulations, governed trans-boundary projects with non-EU countries.

2. Infringement Procedure Against Bulgaria
   The Commission also initiated an infringement procedure against Bulgaria for failing to implement public procurement rules, which led to a halt in construction activities in June 2014. This action demonstrated Bulgaria's commitment to EU energy regulations.

3. Economic Factors
   While economic challenges such as a Russian recession, low oil prices, and a weak ruble were cited, they are unlikely to have been the primary reason for the abrupt termination. Instead, the decline in EU gas demand is a more significant factor. The International Energy Agency revised its 2030 gas demand forecasts for the EU downward by 18% between 2007 and 2014, suggesting that the project may not have been economically viable in the long term.

Implications for the EU

• EU Benefits from the Decision: The abandonment of South Stream may allow the EU to secure more gas with less political interference from Russia.
• Commercial Viability Over Politics: The failure of South Stream highlights the importance of commercial viability over political considerations in energy projects. The Nabucco pipeline, for instance, failed due to insufficient gas supplies, whereas South Stream's failure was attributed to regulatory issues.
• Opportunity for the Southern Gas Corridor: The EU is now encouraged to rethink its strategy for the Southern Gas Corridor, which offers the potential to diversify both the sources and routes of natural gas supply. This could lead to a compromise approach, combining non-Russian and Russian gas sources.

Key Information

• South Stream Abandoned: The project was officially terminated by Putin in December 2014.
• Legal Challenges: The EU's insistence on applying internal market legislation to the project led to legal disputes.
• Economic Considerations: Declining EU gas demand and the lack of long-term viability played a key role in the project's failure.
• TAP Pipeline: The Trans-A Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) remains the only viable project in the Southern Gas Corridor, having successfully completed a market test in December 2014.
• New Opportunities: The EU could explore a "South Stream light" model, allowing for gas interconnectors in southeastern Europe while reducing Russian political influence.

Conclusion

The termination of the South Stream project marks a shift in the EU's energy strategy, emphasizing the need for regulatory compliance, commercial viability, and diversification. While Russia framed the decision as a legal and political issue, the EU may ultimately benefit by securing more gas supply options and reducing dependency on Russian political influence. The Southern Gas Corridor now presents a viable path for the EU to achieve energy security through a mix of supply sources and routes.