2009年-世界发展银行全球_Armenia___Implications_of_the_Global_Economic_Crisis_for_Poverty_50页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Global Economic Crisis Implications for Poverty in Armenia

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, analyzes the potential impact of the global economic crisis on poverty in Armenia. It outlines the key channels through which the crisis affects households and provides poverty projections for the period 2008–2010. The study is based on data from the 2007 Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) and macroeconomic projections.

Main Channels of Impact

The global economic crisis affects Armenia through several key channels:

Labor Market: A decline in employment and wages, particularly in construction and export-oriented industries, significantly impacts household income and poverty levels.
Price Changes: The depreciation of the Armenian Dram (AMD) and planned utility tariff increases contribute to inflation, affecting the purchasing power of households.
Remittances: A reduction in remittances from migrant workers, especially those in Russia, is expected to worsen poverty for households reliant on these funds.
Government Spending: Reduced public spending on social services such as education, health, and social protection may further strain vulnerable populations.

Key Findings and Poverty Projections

Overall Poverty Incidence

The overall poverty incidence in Armenia is projected to increase by 5.2 percentage points between 2008 and 2010.
This would result in an estimated 147,000 people falling below the poverty line in 2009 and 25,000 more in 2010.
The overall poverty rate in 2010 is expected to reach 28%, which is higher than the 2006 level of 26.5%.

Extreme Poverty Incidence

The extreme poverty incidence is projected to rise by a substantially larger margin, with an estimated 149,000 people falling below the extreme poverty threshold in 2009 and 31,000 more in 2010.
The extreme poverty rate in 2010 could surpass the 2004 level by about 77,000 people.

Contribution of Transmission Channels

Labor Market Effects: Account for 62% of the overall and extreme poverty increase.
Remittances Decline: Contribute to 20% of the overall poverty increase.
Price Changes: Responsible for 16% of the overall poverty increase and over 20% of the poverty gap increase.

Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth

Economic growth in Armenia has historically led to significant poverty reduction.
Between 2004 and 2007, for each percentage point of GDP growth, the overall poverty incidence declined by 0.60 percentage points.
With a pre-crisis growth rate of 9.2%, the country was projected to lift about 176,000 people above the poverty line.
The crisis threatens to reverse these gains, with the poverty reductions recorded between 2006 and 2008 more than offset by increases due to the crisis.

Mitigation Measures

The report suggests that additional resources are needed to mitigate the poverty impact of the crisis.
AMD 22.4 billion (or 0.8% of projected 2009 GDP) is needed to support the overall poor.
AMD 9.0 billion (or 0.3% of projected 2009 GDP) is required to support the very poor.
The Family Benefit (FB) program is highlighted as a key tool for social protection, but its targeting accuracy needs improvement.

Recommendations for Improving the Family Benefit Program

Better Integration of Data: Combine 2008 survey data, household registry, and ILCS data for more accurate targeting.
Proxy Means Test (PMT): Implement a regression-based PMT to address underreporting of income.
Outreach Campaigns: Conduct targeted outreach to poor communities with mandatory household visits to collect data for PMT.
Simplify Application Process: Reduce transaction costs by simplifying the application and re-certification process.
Upgrade MIS: Convert the Management Information System (MIS) into a live database and reintroduce cross-checks and electronic verification.

Migration and Remittances

21% of Armenian households receive remittances.
Remittances account for 55% of income for recipient households, making them highly sensitive to economic shocks.
A 25% decline in remittances from immediate family sources and a 50% decline from non-immediate family sources is projected.
The decline in remittances is expected to be more impactful on the poverty gap than on the number of poor.
Households reliant on non-immediate family remittances could see their poverty incidence rise to 27%, up from 18% before the crisis.

Economic Context

The Armenian economy experienced nearly double-digit growth for a decade, but the crisis has led to a sharp slowdown.
The GDP is projected to decline by 8% in 2009 and 2% in 2010.
The exchange rate depreciation has increased the cost of imported goods, but has also benefited remittance-receiving households.
The planned utility tariff increases are expected to raise inflation by at least 2 percentage points.

Conclusion

The global economic crisis poses a serious threat to Armenia's recent poverty reduction progress.
The labor market is the main channel for transmitting the crisis impact to households.
Robust mitigation measures are needed, including expanding social safety nets, public works programs, and unemployment benefits.
The Family Benefit program should be strengthened with improved targeting and additional resources to better support the poor and vulnerable.

Key Information

Poverty Line (2007 prices): AMD 23,168 per adult equivalent per month for overall poverty, and AMD 15,573 for extreme poverty.
Remittances to Armenia: Estimated at US$2 billion in 2008, projected to fall to less than US$1.6 billion in 2009.
GDP Decline: 8% in 2009 and 2% in 2010.
CPI Inflation: Expected to rise by 3–4 percentage points in 2009 due to exchange rate depreciation and utility tariff increases.
Targeting Accuracy of FB: Improved in 2008 but still has room for enhancement.
Leakage of FB Resources: 47% in 2007, compared to 40% in 2006.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1.1: Trends in GDP and poverty incidence from 1989 to 2007.
Figure 2.1: Armenia's main trade partners and the financial crisis impact.
Figure 2.2: Remittances and capital flows to Armenia and projections.
Table 1.1: Poverty reduction gains in Armenia between 1989/99 and 2007.
Table 2.1: Growth elasticity of poverty and projections.
Table 3.1: Poverty projections under different growth and employment scenarios.
Table 4.1: Poverty projections based on the combined effects of the crisis.
Table 5.1: Migrant worker destinations outside Armenia.
Table 5.2: Projected poverty rates with declines in remittances.
Table A.1: Change in average monthly salary, by ownership and sector.
Table A.2: Sectoral composition of GDP.
Table A.3: Structural changes in employment by sector.
Table A.4: Input data for poverty projections.