世界发展银行-Tanzania-Economic-Update,-June-2020-_-Addressing-the-Impact-of-COVID-19_91页_11mb

报告摘要

Tanzania Economic Update Summary

Core Content

The Tanzania Economic Update provides an in-depth analysis of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and outlines the potential of the digital economy in supporting recovery. The report emphasizes the need for context-specific policy responses to address both the health and economic challenges posed by the pandemic, while also highlighting the importance of ICT development and digital transformation in enhancing resilience and growth.

Main Points

Economic Impact of COVID-19

GDP Growth Decline: In 2019, Tanzania's economy grew at 6.9%, but the pandemic is expected to cut GDP growth by at least half, with real GDP growth projected at 2.5% in 2020.
Poverty Increase: Simulations suggest an additional 500,000 Tanzanians could fall below the poverty line, especially in urban areas reliant on self-employment and informal enterprises.
Tourism Collapse: Tourism, a key growth driver, is expected to contract by 80% in 2020 due to travel bans and fear of infection, with only a mild recovery anticipated in 2021 if global demand rebounds.
Trade Disruptions: Exports are projected to decline by 10.0%, and imports by 1.5%, due to supply chain disruptions. However, lower oil prices and higher gold prices could alleviate the current account deficit.
Current Account Deficit (CAD): The CAD is expected to widen due to the economic slowdown and reduced global demand.
Domestic Business Conditions: Private investment and consumer spending are expected to decline, with financial institutions facing reduced lending and increased nonperforming loans.
Fiscal and Economic Measures: The government has accelerated payments of domestic arrears and VAT refunds, and the Bank of Tanzania (BOT) has lowered interest rates and reserve requirements to support the economy.

Risks and Uncertainties

High Downside Risk: The current outlook is highly uncertain, with downside risks increasing if global demand remains suppressed or government actions are inadequate.
Health System Strain: A severe local outbreak could strain the healthcare system and delay recovery, necessitating additional health spending.
Long-Term Impact: There is a serious risk of long-lasting negative spillovers on labor productivity and economic recovery.

Digital Economy Potential

Digital Economy as a Recovery Driver: The digital economy is seen as a key enabler of economic recovery, especially in containing the spread of the virus and streamlining policy responses.
Mobile Money and Cash Transfers: Tanzania can leverage its existing mobile accounts to expand cash transfer schemes and enhance social safety nets.
Informal Sector Access: Mobile banking could provide quick access to government benefits for the informal sector, reducing the need for formal registration.
Global Data Traffic Growth: Global data traffic is expected to grow from 45,000 GB per second to 150,700 GB by 2022, but Tanzania's data usage remains below regional averages, especially compared to Kenya.
Infrastructure and Legislation: Digital expansion depends on infrastructure development and enabling legislation, including data protection laws and intellectual property frameworks.
Recommendations: The report calls for investment in rural broadband, removal of barriers for mobile operators, and attracting carrier-neutral data centers and CDNs to support digital growth.

Key Recommendations

Strengthen Health Response: Allocate additional resources to healthcare infrastructure, testing, PPEs, and medical personnel training.
Implement Economic Mitigation Measures: Support affected businesses and households through grants, subsidies, and deferrals to retain employment and alleviate financial strain.
Expand Digital Access: Focus on rural broadband coverage, affordable mobile data packages, and improving digital infrastructure.
Legislative Reforms: Pass a strong data protection act, review intellectual property laws, and establish a framework that encourages trust in the digital environment.
Policy Coordination: Ensure policy coherence between health, economic, and digital sectors, and improve transparency in public services and data management.

Summary of Economic Performance Before the Pandemic

GDP Growth: Strong and stable, averaging 6.5% between 2013 and 2018, with 6.9% in 2019.
Sectoral Contributions: Mining and construction were the leading growth drivers, with gold exports and public infrastructure projects contributing significantly.
Inflation Control: Annual inflation was low and stable, averaging 3.5% in 2018-19, with food inflation rising to 6.6% in February 2020.
Current Account Deficit: Reduced to 3.0% of GDP in 2019 from 3.8% in 2018, supported by higher gold and manufactured exports.
Fiscal Space: Tanzania has considerable fiscal space, high international reserves, and favorable commodity prices, which can support policy interventions.

Conclusion

The Tanzania Economic Update underscores the severe economic impact of the pandemic, particularly on tourism, exports, and domestic demand, while also highlighting the opportunities presented by the digital economy. It calls for timely and well-targeted policy actions to mitigate the crisis, protect livelihoods, and promote sustainable recovery. The report also emphasizes the importance of digital infrastructure, affordable internet access, and legal frameworks in enhancing economic resilience and fostering growth in the post-pandemic era.