20180904-广发证券_香港_-GF_Consumer_Watch__HK_Retail_Sector_Monthly__Macro_uncertainties_reflected_in_July_retail_sales_growth_slowdown_5页_977kb
报告摘要
GF Consumer Watch Summary: HK Retail Sector Monthly Report (Sept 4, 2018)
Core Content Overview
This report provides an analysis of the Hong Kong retail sector performance for July 2018, highlighting the slowdown in retail sales growth compared to June, and outlines the outlook for the second half of 2018. It also includes stock performance data, valuation metrics, and key factors influencing the sector.
Key Observations
Retail Sales Growth
- July 2018 YoY Growth: 7.8%, down from 12% in June.
- Mainland Visitor Arrivals: Growth slowed to 8% YoY in July from 12.5% in June due to weaker same-day and overnight arrivals.
- Highest Tourist Numbers: July still recorded the highest monthly tourist arrivals so far this year at 5.46 million, with 4.4 million from the mainland.
- Segment Performance:
- Jewelry Sales: Grew 16.8% YoY, remaining the strongest segment, likely due to the decline in gold prices.
- Cosmetics & Medicines: Slowed to 12.7% YoY from 18% in June.
- Apparel: Grew 3.6% YoY from 6.2% in June.
- Department Stores: Grew 8.6% YoY from 15% in June.
Future Outlook
- HKRMA Forecast: Retail sales growth is expected to slow to 7–8% in 2H18 and no more than 10% for the full year.
- Risks: Continued depreciation of the RMB and uncertainties from the Sino-US trade dispute are expected to dampen consumer spending in the short term.
- High-Speed Rail Impact: The opening of the high-speed rail link to the mainland on September 23 is anticipated to boost mainland tourist arrivals in 2H18.
Stock Performance
The report provides a summary of the performance of key HK retail stocks as of September 4, 2018:
| Company | Price (Sep 4, 2018) | 1M % Chg | YTD % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chow Tai Fook | 1929 HK | 2.1 | -6.2 |
| Luk Fook | 590 HK | 0.7 | -18.6 |
| Chow Sang Sang | 116 HK | 19.1 | -16.7 |
| Emperor Watch | 887 HK | 0.29 | -19.7 |
| Stelux | 84 HK | 0.30 | -27.3 |
| Oriental Watch | 398 HK | 1.94 | -17.0 |
| Lifestyle | 1212 HK | 15.12 | -30.3 |
| Sa Sa Int'l | 178 HK | 4.04 | -5.6 |
| Bonjour Hldgs | 653 HK | 0.26 | -30.3 |
| Trinity | 891 HK | 0.53 | -5.6 |
| I.T Ltd | 999 HK | 4.16 | -24.9 |
| Average | -6.7 | -0.2 |
Stock Valuation Metrics
| Company | FY18E Price | FY19E Price | Mkt Cap (HK$ m) | FY18E EPS | FY19E EPS | FY18E P/E | FY19E P/E | FY18E Revenue Growth | FY19E Revenue Growth | FY19E Yield | FY18E P/B | FY19E P/B | FY18E ROE | FY19E ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chow Tai Fook | 7.41 | 7.41 | 74100 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 15.03 | 13.35 | 10.13 | 8.64 | 5.01 | 2.19 | 2.08 | 14.78 | 16.14 |
| Luk Fook | 27.30 | 27.30 | 16028 | 2.54 | 2.75 | 10.76 | 9.91 | 10.81 | 8.24 | 4.20 | 1.47 | 1.36 | 14.30 | 14.30 |
| Chow Sang Sang | 15.72 | 15.72 | 10649 | 1.52 | 1.67 | 10.34 | 9.44 | 13.39 | 7.94 | 3.88 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 9.80 | 10.08 |
| Emperor Watch | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1932 | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Stelux | 0.30 | 0.30 | 314 | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Oriental Watch | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1107 | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Lifestyle | 15.12 | 15.12 | 23881 | 1.15 | 1.26 | 13.15 | 11.99 | 6.66 | 6.69 | 4.20 | 5.12 | 4.25 | 41.83 | 38.47 |
| Sa Sa Int'l | 4.04 | 4.04 | 12282 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 18.79 | 15.97 | 14.94 | 8.21 | 5.20 | 4.99 | 4.90 | 26.61 | 31.43 |
| Bonjour Hldgs | 0.26 | 0.26 | 870 | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Trinity | 0.53 | 0.53 | 1907 | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| I.T Ltd | 4.16 | 4.16 | 4975 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 8.85 | 6.97 | 8.27 | 8.13 | 6.01 | 1.28 | 1.16 | 15.36 | 17.86 |
| Average | 12.82 | 11.27 | 10.70 | 7.97 | 4.75 | 2.67 | 2.44 | 20.45 | 21.38 |
Company Ratings
| Rating | Description |
|---|---|
| Buy | Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15% |
| Accumulate | Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15% |
| Hold | Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5% |
| Underperform | Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5% |
Sector Ratings
| Rating | Description |
|---|---|
| Positive | Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10% |
| Neutral | Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10% |
| Cautious | Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10% |
Key Influencing Factors
- RMB Depreciation: Reduced average tourist spending, impacting overall retail growth.
- Trade Disputes: Added uncertainty to the consumption environment.
- High Base Effect: July's growth was lower due to the strong base from June.
- Tourist Trends: Same-day and overnight arrivals from the mainland declined, affecting retail performance.
Disclaimer and Certification
- The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
- GF Securities (Hong Kong) certifies that all views reflect personal opinions of the analysts.
- No conflicts of interest are disclosed.
- The report may include projections and forecasts that are subject to change.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
