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(Re)Engaging Russia in an Era of Uncertainty

Core Content

This policy brief, authored by Samuel A. Greene and Dmitry Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Center, analyzes the shifting dynamics of Russia's domestic and foreign policy in the wake of economic and political uncertainty. It highlights the consequences of Russia's previous era of certainty and the challenges it now faces in re-engaging with the global community.

Main Points

The End of Certainty

• Historical Context: For much of the first decade of the 21st century, Russia experienced a period of economic and political certainty, driven by high commodity prices and centralized control over political institutions.
• Economic Growth: Russia's GDP grew every year from 1999, with significant sovereign reserves and booming sectors such as banking and real estate.
• Political Centralization: The Kremlin brought media, parties, and regional institutions under tight control, eliminating competitive politics and reducing feedback mechanisms.
• Consequences of Certainty: This led to a lack of strategic thinking and over-reliance on in-house expertise, resulting in miscalculated reforms and a growing gap between official policy and reality.

Key Challenges

• Policy Space Atrophy: The policy space that was once vibrant during the commodity boom has atrophied, limiting Russia's ability to engage in meaningful dialogue.
• Global Reintegration: Russia has not participated in key global issues such as financial regulation, climate change, and the "responsibility to protect," leading to a disconnect with the international community.
• Need for Strategic Engagement: Russia must become more strategic in its domestic and foreign policy to effectively engage with the world again.

A New Approach to Engagement

• Obama vs. Biden: The brief contrasts the Obama approach, which emphasizes accommodation and respect, with the Biden approach, which focuses on pressure and realism.
• Institutional Engagement: The U.S. should move toward institutional engagement with Russia, based on treaties and international cooperation, rather than personal relationships.
• European Challenges: Europe faces more complex challenges due to its deep ties with Russia, including energy and security, making institutionalization more difficult but necessary.

The Path Forward

• Importance of Dialogue: Western governments must encourage dialogue and openness in Russia, even when the Kremlin is hesitant, to foster a more informed and strategic policy community.
• Avoiding Confrontation: The West should avoid exploiting Russia's absence and instead work to support its reintegration into global policy discussions.
• Empowering Civil Society: Engaging Russian independent analysts can legitimize and empower civil society, helping to shape a more constructive engagement with global issues.

Key Information

• Economic Impact: The 2008 financial crisis and subsequent economic downturn pushed around 5 million Russians into poverty.
• Policy Failures: Miscalculated reforms, such as the 2005 welfare benefits reform, led to public protests and a loss of public trust.
• Global Disengagement: Russia has not been active in global forums such as Copenhagen climate talks and UN initiatives on the "responsibility to protect."
• Recommendation: The West should focus on institutional engagement, not personal relationships, to build a sustainable and strategic partnership with Russia.

Conclusion

The brief argues that the current era of uncertainty in Russia presents both challenges and opportunities for meaningful re-engagement with the international community. By fostering institutional dialogue, supporting independent analysis, and avoiding unnecessary confrontation, the West can help Russia navigate this transition and re-engage with global issues.