卡内基国际和平基金会-Russia-s-Stony-Path-in-the-South-Caucasus_25页_359kb

Summary of "Russia's Stony Path in the South Caucasus"

Core Content

This document explores the evolving relationship between Russia and the South Caucasus region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It analyzes the historical, political, and strategic dynamics that have shaped Russian influence in the area, highlighting the fluctuating nature of its power and the complex interplay with regional actors.

Main Points

• Russia's Influence Fluctuates: Russia's ability to project power and influence in the South Caucasus has fluctuated over time, but its strategic interests have remained consistent.
• Security Concerns: The region's security concerns, particularly the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, have been a major factor in shaping Russian policy.
• Regional Interactions: The three states in the South Caucasus are not only distinct in their relations with Russia but also deeply interconnected with each other, often complicating Russian efforts to manage the area.
• Internal Security Ties: Russia's policies in the South Caucasus are closely linked to its internal security, especially in the North Caucasus, where ethnic and religious ties have historically supported Moscow's interests.
• Institutional Efforts: Russia has created various multilateral institutions (e.g., CSTO, EAEU) to counterbalance NATO and the EU's influence in the region.
• Georgian-Russian Relations: Relations between Russia and Georgia have been particularly strained, with historical grievances and political shifts leading to significant conflicts, including the 2008 Russo-Georgian War.
• Armenian-Russian Alliance: Russia maintains a strong strategic alliance with Armenia, which is seen as a key ally in the region, particularly in countering Turkish and Azerbaijani influence.
• Azerbaijani Neutrality: Azerbaijan has pursued a more independent path, leveraging its oil wealth to avoid full alignment with Russia, while still maintaining a strategic relationship.
• Putin's Assertive Foreign Policy: Since Putin's return to the presidency in 2012, Russia has adopted a more assertive stance, viewing the EU and NATO as strategic rivals and reasserting its influence in the region.

Key Developments

• The Karabakh Conflict: The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has been a central issue, with both sides appealing to Russia for support and viewing Russian neutrality as a betrayal.
• Russia's Balancing Act: Russia has often acted as a mediator in the Karabakh conflict, but its balancing act has led to tensions, especially when it sells arms to one side.
• The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: This marked a turning point in Russian policy toward Georgia, leading to a significant shift in the regional power dynamics and increased Russian presence in the area.
• Armenia's Political Shift: The 2016-2017 political upheaval in Armenia, which led to the ousting of President Serzh Sargsyan and the rise of Nikol Pashinyan, demonstrated a growing anti-Russian sentiment among Armenians, despite Russia's role as a security guarantor.
• Russia's Response: Despite the political shifts in Armenia, Russia has shown restraint and even support for Pashinyan, indicating a complex and evolving relationship.

Conclusion

The document concludes that while Russia has historically played a dominant role in the South Caucasus, its influence is now challenged by the region's shifting political landscape and the rise of external actors like Turkey. The 2020 escalation in the Karabakh conflict and the subsequent political changes in Armenia underscore the difficulty Russia faces in maintaining its traditional influence. Russia's strategy of balancing and mediating has had mixed results, and its internal security concerns continue to shape its external policies in the region.

About the Author

Philip Remler is an expert on Russian foreign policy and the Caucasus region. His analysis provides a critical perspective on Russia's evolving role in the South Caucasus, drawing on historical context and recent developments.

Notes

The document includes references to various historical events, political figures, and strategic decisions that have influenced Russia's relations with the South Caucasus. It also highlights the importance of the CIS, CSTO, and EAEU in shaping the region's geopolitical landscape.