2016年-世界发展银行全球_Europe_and_Central_Asia_Economic_Update_November_2016___Polarization_and_Populism_112页_8mb

Summary of Polarization and Populism - Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, November 2016

Core Content

This report analyzes the economic and social challenges facing Europe and Central Asia (ECA) in the context of rising political polarization and populism. It outlines both the short-term economic outlook and the long-term structural issues that are shaping the region's development trajectory.

Main Structural Challenges

1. Commodity Price Volatility

• The decline in global commodity prices, particularly oil and minerals, has had a significant impact on the region's economies.
• Oil-exporting countries like Azerbaijan have experienced substantial terms-of-trade losses, which have reduced national income more than GDP.
• Countries reliant on oil revenues and construction orders are struggling to adapt to new economic realities and may not become competitive in emerging sectors.

2. Investment and Growth Decline

• The European Union (EU) has seen a decline in investment rates, partly due to reduced external resources following the financial crisis and shrinking trade deficits.
• Lower investment over the long term threatens to slow growth, unless productivity-enhancing policies are adopted.
• The EU's investment boom before the crisis has given way to a new growth model that must be adapted to the changing global environment.

3. Diverging Competitiveness

• Southern European countries have faced diminishing international competitiveness, which could lead to increased tensions within the EU currency union.
• The decline in competitiveness is exacerbating regional disparities and contributing to economic and political instability.

4. Shift in Economic Structure

• There is a need for a shift in production toward tradable goods and services.
• The rise of the sharing economy and changes in industrial organization are challenging traditional work arrangements and labor market structures.

Main Economic Outlook

1. Short-Term Growth

• The ECA region is expected to experience modest GDP growth in 2016, rising from 1.4% in 2015 to 1.6%.
• The EU and Western Balkans are expected to see a slight decline in GDP growth compared to previous years, with the EU continuing its recovery from the financial crisis.
• The Russian Federation is forecast to experience a small GDP contraction in 2016, following a 3.6% drop in 2015.

2. Consumption Trends

• In the Western part of the region, consumption is growing faster than GDP, while in the Eastern part, it is declining more sharply than GDP.
• Russia's consumption dropped by nearly 10 percentage points in 2015, with a 3.7 percentage point GDP contraction, reflecting a significant terms-of-trade loss.
• The decline in remittances and purchasing power has had a negative impact on consumption in many ECA countries.

3. Impact of Global Conditions

• Weak global economic activity has contributed to the region's slow growth.
• Global trade and production growth rates have fallen below historical averages, affecting ECA's export performance and economic resilience.

Main Political and Social Trends

1. Rising Political Polarization

• Political polarization is increasing across the region, with a decline in support for the middle of the political spectrum.
• Populist movements are gaining traction, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction with institutions and economic conditions.

2. Declining Subjective Wellbeing

• Life satisfaction and job satisfaction have declined in much of Europe and Central Asia between 2010 and 2015.
• There is a strong correlation between declining subjective wellbeing and increased economic insecurity, particularly in the form of temporary and part-time employment.

3. Inequality and Mobility

• Inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, has decreased in some countries, but anxiety and dissatisfaction remain high.
• Perceptions of upward mobility have worsened, and the decline in middle-skilled employment has contributed to this.
• The report suggests that inequality of opportunity, rather than income inequality alone, is linked to rising anxiety and dissatisfaction.

Policy Implications

• Cyclical macroeconomic policies alone are insufficient to address the region's structural challenges.
• In Western ECA, there is some room for fiscal stimulus, but monetary stimulus is nearing its limit.
• In Eastern ECA, looser monetary policy may be an option, but fiscal policies must adapt to lower oil revenues and reduced remittances.
• Policies must support structural adjustment while minimizing the social impact of economic changes.

Conclusion

The report highlights that while the ECA region is experiencing modest economic recovery, the underlying structural challenges—such as declining competitiveness, shifts in economic structure, and rising social and political tensions—pose significant risks to long-term growth and poverty reduction. Addressing these challenges requires a shift from traditional policy tools to more adaptive and inclusive strategies that support economic transformation and improve social cohesion.